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Changsha Per Capita Disposable Income Analysis And Prediction

Posted on:2013-02-09Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Z T LeiFull Text:PDF
GTID:2249330374487578Subject:Probability theory and mathematical statistics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
A region of the per capita disposable income status in the local economic development has very important sense, also it is an important factor of social stability. But the effect of per capita disposable income of many factors, and the relationship between various factors are very complex, leading to the prediction of the difficulty and accuracy are difficult. This article from the economic time series nonlinear perspective in Changsha City, the per capita disposable income of the economy, put forward the train of thought of semi parametric regression model.This paper mainly discusses between the city of Changsha urban per capita disposable income and GDP, demographic factors affect the relationship, in the use of semi parametric regression theory was established on the basis of Changsha City and GDP and between populations of semi parametric regression model. Text of the estimation methods using the partial residual estimation method and two stage least squares estimation method, the optimal window selection method with cross validation method, kernel function selection the power of four kernel functions, the data derived from the statistical yearbook of Hunan province.The model not only reflects the various variables of per capita disposable income and its main influence factors, while the per capita disposable income forecast. This paper also predicts the2009years of Changsha City per capita disposable income, the forecasting results show that the model has higher accuracy.Finally, we puts forward related suggestions in Changsha City per capita disposable income.
Keywords/Search Tags:per capita disposable income, semi-parametric regressionmodel, forecast
PDF Full Text Request
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