Study On The Agricultural Insurance Pricing And It’s Financial Subidies Based On The Measure Of Natural Risk

Facing frequent natural disasters, agricultural insurance has become one of themost important non price agricultural protection tools at international practice.However, as a developing agricultural country, China’s agricultural insurance theoryand practice of development, which are seriously lagging behind the practical needsin natural disaster risk management, should be strengthened to explore and study,and as a basic element of natural risk management, it’s more to be to deepen thestudy on the measure of agricultural natural risk and it’s insurance pricing.The article draws on relevant research results at home and abroad,comprehensively utilizes the theories and methods of economics, insurance,management science, probability theory and mathematical statistics, and studies inaccordance with the logical order of "risk measureâ†'premiums determinedâ†'financial subsidies". Based on the mathematical analysis on measuring theagriculture natural risks (including catastrophe risk), this paper makes the overallassessment of the risk of loss of our country’s agricultural disasters; Furthermore,based on the risk analysis and combined with actuarial science, the capital assetpricing model and extreme value theory, the method to determine agriculturepremium rate has been systematically studied, besides make some related calculusby the application example; Finally, this paper, combining farmers’ willingness topay and the actuarial premium rate by mathematical deduction, makes the theoreticaldiscussion on the financial subsidies and standards.Through the theoretical analysis and actual calculation on the measurement ofnatural risks in agriculture, it finds that the general mean and mean square deviationof the statistical analysis and probability distributions to be merged is not suitablefor the measurement of catastrophic risk, and conduct the mathematical deduction tothis point of view from the extreme value analysis, we can establish the catastrophicrisk measurement model under the POT model; And then, based on the precise riskmeasure, natural agricultural risk insurance can be scientific determined at all levelsand rates, mainly including the pure rate, reinsurance premium rate and additionalrates of three parts, but this actuarial requirements which not only satisfy theinsurance companies balance business, but also give a certain amount of risk protection and reinsurance cession often determine its high level of tariffs; Finally,due to the necessity for government involvement in agricultural insurance, the articlebuilds the mathematical model of the financial subsidies of agricultural insuranceand show that by derivation: whatever the way of subsidies is, the specific level ofsubsidies all should be determined by the agricultural natural level of risk indifferent regions; accordingly, the direct economic subsidies for farmers need to bedetermined according to the differences in farmers’ risk appetite and income levelsof different regions; however, the subsidy to management fee of insurance companyneed to be treated with caution because of its unavoidable principal agent problem.Certainly, for the theme of this paper, it also needs to execute computersimulation and quantitative research on the actual in regions, and combine withdifferent cultural backgrounds and income levels to determine the amount ofinsurance premiums bear between farmers, insurance companies and public financesunder the socially optimal equilibrium.