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Based On The Combined Weight Model With Minimizing Deviations

Posted on:2013-02-19Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:D YinFull Text:PDF
GTID:2249330395481982Subject:Quantitative Economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
As a fundamental component of modern society, highways place a crucial role in the economy and our daily lives. In transport, highways reduce time and create increased opportunities for people to travel for business and trade routes for goods among cities. The highways are the skeleton of the roads in our country. However, the economy is benefited from the highway, the lost caused by its accident can’t be ignored, such as the casualties and damages. With the rapid development of highway industry in our country, the research of emergency management is proposed to reduce the lost caused by accident.Although our country’s highway industry has gained highly achievement, there are still some problems in the highway emergency management due to the lower start point, inadequate attention and knowledge of the highway management system. With the help of the high-tech methods, a highway management system is needed to predict and prevent the accident by controlling the key factors that caused accident, to reduce the rate of the accident, to increase the efficiency of dealing operation, to avoid casualty and limit the lost of property. Especially, the highway emergency management plays an important role in the system to maintain it safely running. A high level highway emergency management is also important to the society.In this paper, an assessment system of highway emergence management is proposed. It is established on the analysis of emergence capacity and the characteristic of highway in our country. The assessment factors and their weights are also presented. The minimal deviation method is employed to combine the factor. Finally, an emergency evaluation model is addressed.Grasp the core of the emergency response capacity connotation based on building a highway emergency response capacity evaluation index system, focusing on analysis of the highway emergency response capacity index system weight determination method, and finally given a minimal deviation basedportfolio to empower the emergency response capacity evaluation model, and prove the feasibility of this model through the evaluation of the emergency response capacity of Shanghai Expressway. At the same time,this article promote several recommendations which based on the conclusions of the highway emergencies emergency management, having the theoretical and practical significance.First, the analysis of the capacity of highway emergency management is introduced. It contains the aim, the schedule, the mechanism, the organization, operation and evaluation of the emergence management. Based on above aspects, the assessment system of the highway emergence management is established including4standard layers and22index layers.Then, the weights of assessment factors are decided by three methods, AHP based on two-tuple linguistic、entropy based on two-tuple linguistic and G1method. Furthermore, the weight of the compound standard layer is given by the minimal deviation method. A new assessment model is established to evaluate the capacity of highway emergence management.Finally, the Shanghai highway is evaluated by this assessment system. The reliability of the assessment model is proved. Simultaneously, the sensitivity of the assessment factor is also evaluated. According to the assessment results, some suggestions are proposed to enhance the emergency capacity of Shanghai highway.
Keywords/Search Tags:expressway emergency management combination weight, minimizing deviations principle, emergency evaluation, two-tuple fuzzy linguistic
PDF Full Text Request
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