| Oil-economy blood is vital strategic material for economy development. Oil has become a political weapon between countries, so all countries compete for it. In August2008, Russia forces invaded Georgia and occupied Republic of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, competing oil and gas resources with countries such as united states. In April18th,2012, the war between northern and southern Sudan was declared, which aims to strive for oil fields. What’s important is that we import66%of Sudan oil in2011.In terms of outbreak of Iraq war with the excuse of Iraq possessing weapons of mass destruction, which lasts for seven years and5months, Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan points out in his book "The Age of Turbulence:Adventures in a New World" that he feel sorry for saying a well known truth that the main reason for Iraq war is oil.With politicization and financialization of oil, oil has been the safeguard for national political and economy security. After becoming a net petroleum importer country in1993, oil consumption has been rising year by year. At the same time, rate of growth speeds up resulting from accelerating demand and supply gap. According to data from Statistical Review of World Energy, Our country in2010became the world’s second largest oil consumer, Annual oil consumption is429million tons and gap between supply and demand is up to114.4million tons. However, along with increase of exploitation, growth of China’s oil supply is far less than oil consumption. Ratio of dependence on foreign trade has been rising, which even was up to58.7%in2010, breaking through55%and was up to59.8in2011, closing to60%.As per forecast from International Energy Agency, OPEC and Energy Research Institute, ratio of dependence on foreign trade of China’s oil are76%,52%and55%-56%respectively. And forecast from researcher Ying fan coming from Chinese Academy of Sciences is that the China oil ratio will range from65%to70%in2020,and in2030from70%to75%.Under such critical situation, the pressure from overseas offers a depressing picture. The amount of imported oil is moving upward continuously while the international price of oil is rising with fluctuation. Chinese main oil resources are full of unrest factors, such as the Libyan oil supply interruption for six months, an oil embargo on Iran and war striving for oil between North and south Sudan, which all present challenges for our oil import security. Under such situation, research on oil foreign trade development strategy is of important significance for our oil import security.The thesis firstly introduces the related theories on oil trade. Then, analyzing the present situation of oil from oil distribution, supply and demand factors, price formation mechanism of international oil and international trade on international angle of view, in which deeply analyzes international oil price fluctuating factors and current oil trade pattern with latest data from BP oil company, and future trend is also predicted. And then, analyzing present oil trade situation in China from import resources and export countries, trade of crude oil and production trade as well as mode of trade. After analysis on both international and Chinese angles of view, the thesis illustrates the main problems and factors on Chinese oil trade, including but not limit to ratio of import dependence, competition factors between china and Japan, Russia and United States, and channel for import. And then, development strategies are put forward, which, in terms of current situation include increasing domestic exploration efforts, facilitating energy structure adjustment which devotes to developing alternative oil and gas; multiplying foreign trade system on import resources, varieties, methods and transportation channels; developing and perfecting strategic oil reserve and financially systematize strategy; and controlling population growth. The last part summarizes the thesis.Adhering to the previous research, innovations of this thesis rest with:(1) Most of the existing studies analyze oil trade strategies without focus on population control. So the biggest innovation of the thesis is making a deeper research on population control on the basis of growth data and unit oil consumption data, which resulting from conclusion that population control is an effective way to oil demand reduce. (2) Take advantage of factor endowment theory and the newest data, the thesis classify and analyze the exporter and importer not only based on regions, but also based on countries.(3) Analyze Chinese oil trade present situation with the latest data. |
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