The Influence Factors Of Agricultural Product Price Fluctuation And Trend Analysis

Since the reform and open, agriculture obtained the rapid development in China.However, agricultural price volatility is also must become the focus of the economictheory and policy department in China. From2000to2012, our country agriculturalproduct price fluctuations are frequent, often assumes the cyclical fluctuations.Agricultural price volatility is the outcome of combined action of multiplefactors, the change of the agricultural planting area and the level of science andtechnology and people’s life and industrial demand growing consumer demand fromthe supply and demand situation of tension is the basis of the price fluctuation ofagricultural products. Supply chain cost factor price fluctuation is the main influencefactors. From the perspective of the whole supply chain of agricultural products,production, circulation and sales each link in each link will change to a certain extent,cause changes in the supply chain, especially the changes in each link cost factors.At the same time, in view of the frequent sharp fluctuations in agricultural prices,in recent years, countries have introduced more regulation policies and measures, thestable agricultural prices have played a positive role. But the implementation of thesepolicies and measures is not enough, only relevant production, circulation enterprisesalso should adopt relevant measures, formulate the corresponding countermeasures todeal with price fluctuations of agricultural products.Based on the above analysis, based on the analysis of domestic and internationalnumerous scholars to research into the causes of agricultural price volatility,according to the agricultural products supply chain theory deeply analyzes the maininfluence factors of agricultural product price fluctuation, and mainly in soybean suchmajor agricultural products, for example, combining with related data in heilongjiangprovince, respectively from the macro and micro aspects analyze the volatile prices ofsoybean sales reason, from the perspective of supply chain, this paper emphatically analyzes the main influencing factors. Adopts empirical analysis method analysis ofsoybean production, logistics costs and selling prices of soybean, such as per capitaincome level influence, after recent agricultural prices based on the actual data, usinggrey prediction model of Heilongjiang province soybean market selling price hascarried on the short-term forecast in the future. At last, it puts forward some policiesof agricultural product price controls.