The Empirical Analysis Of Jiangsu Population Urbanization And Consumer Demand

The level of urbanization is an important symbol of a country or region from anagricultural society into a modern, industrialized society, is also an important way tosolve the "three rural issues".Jiangsu level of urbanization is55.60%in2009, higherthan the national average (46.59%), but still lower than in Shanghai, Zhejiang,Guangdong and other developed provinces and cities. Status of the province can notbe optimistic about consumer demand, in recent years, the rate of final consumptioncontinued to decline, final consumption in2009was41.7%, not only lower thanShanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other developed provinces and municipalities,but also below the national average (48.0%). In the cases of current world economicslowdown, financial crisis remain, the objective need to expand the province ofconsumer demand, increase the consumption rate. Therefore, lack of domesticdemand, not only does not fit developed economy in Jiangsu and higher levels of percapita income, does not meet the practical requirements too. At this stage, Jiangsuneeds to expand domestic demand, growth, completion of economic growth pattern,and improve the level of urbanization is conducive to expanding consumer demand inthe province, therefore, the relationship between the two studies is particularlyimportant.. This paper first analyzes the status and characteristics of urbanization ofpopulation in Jiangsu and consumer demand, investigate the impact of Jiangsupopulation urbanization on consumer demand. On this basis, first, select the level ofurbanization, the total retail sales and other indicators, use of Granger causality test,smooth test, co integration and error correction model and other time-series methods,demonstrated that the dependencies of Jiangsu urbanization and consumer demand,concluded that: Whether short or long term, Jiangsu urbanization have a significantpositive effect on consumer demand, Urbanization in Jiangsu will help to expandconsumer demand; second, select the number of indicators, using principal componentanalysis, build coordination degree model, analysis of Jiangsu urbanization andconsumer demand, calculated the degree of coordination of population urbanization in Jiangsu and consumer demand in1990-2009, the degree of coordination of13provincial cities in Jiangsu Province in2009of population urbanization and consumerdemand, concluded that: in recent years, the growth rate of Jiangsu populationurbanization and consumer demand gradually becomes basic coordination by thelack of coordination, and showed a good coordination trend. Cities in JiangsuProvince in2009the results of coordination about urbanization and consumer demandshows quite different, generally southern region superior to the Soviet Union andNorthern region, overall there have the lag phenomenon of urbanization in Jiangsu.Finally, according to the above empirical research, proposed the countermeasures andsuggestions to upgrade Jiangsu urbanization standards, expanding consumer demandin the province, increase in the consumption rate.