Study Of Urban Complex Project’s Risk Identificaion

In modern city, people who are accustomed to fast-paced need a space which isconvenient, fast, economic and combining many functions, to enjoy the life and workof high efficiency, then the urban complexes come into being. Developing urbancomplexes can improve the layout of urban space, create a vibrant urban area,enhance the image of the city, real estate enterprises can also get a greater return oninvestment than a single property. It has been the target pursued by localdecision-making layer and investors. There is a number of urban complexes operatingin the market, including Beijing Wanda Plaza, the Beijing Guorui city, ShanghaiWujiaochang, Shimao Butterfly Bay, etc. Now it seems that these complexes aresomehow successful urban complexes, meeting the needs of the urban population.However, the current situations of our urban complex project development are asfollows: setting up projects actively, starting blindly, rushing to complete, being lackof a sound risk assessment system and so on, leading developers facing the problems,such as: the chain of construction funds is tight, the market is difficult to "digest" alarge number of complex projects, commercial management teams are lack and otherissues. All these can easily bring about the troubles of being unable to provide thedriving force for the development of regional and city. Therefore, the purpose of thispaper is building the urban complex project risk evaluation indicators system of a newcentral area, in order to provide scientific guidance on today’s domestic urbancomplex project development of a new center area, discriminating whether it issuitable for the urban complex development from the point of risk control.The paper firstly reviews the theoretical research of urban complex andtheoretical studies of real estate project risk management at home and abroad, anddefines the related concept and scope of the study. Secondly, it identifies the urbancomplex project’s risk factors of a new centre and establishes urban complexproject’s risk evaluation index system. It determines the index weight by usinganalytic hierarchy process, and evaluates risks by fuzzy comprehensive evaluationmethod, building the urban complex project risk evaluation model; Then, this articleuses Hangzhou LONGHU Yan Lan Mountain project and Hangzhou BAOLONGcity square project as an example to analyze the project development risks deeply,verifying the operability of the risk evaluation index system through analysis of evaluation data. Through the comparative analysis of two complex projects’ riskevaluation results, it obtains that the overall risk of Hangzhou LONGHU Yan LanMountain project is at the level of "relatively low risk", the overall risk of HangzhouBAOLONG city square project is at the level of "medium-risk", this is consistentwith the practical situation. Finally, this article puts forward specific proposalscontrary to the risk control measures during the project development process ofdeveloping a new central.This article possible innovations lie in the use of analytic hierarchy process andfuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, building the urban complex project riskevaluation model of a new central area for the first time; using the established riskevaluation model to do the empirical research on development risks of HangzhouLONGHU Yan Lan Mountain project and Hangzhou BAOLONG city square project,through comparing, it proves that the obtained risk evaluation model is operable andhas practical significance. It highlights the importance of selecting the urban complexproject site and the abilities of developers and the operation.