Study On The Carrying Capacity Of Country Land Based On Ecological Footprint Method

As the population, resources, environment and development issueshave become increasingly prominent, the supply of land resourcescannot meet the growing social and economic needs, constantlydeteriorating ecological environment and conflicts between human andland exacerbate these problems seriously and restrict the sustainableand coordinated social and economic development. Since1921Parkand Burgess proposed the concept of carrying capacity in ecology forthe first time, the research on it in economics, demography and otherfields have been started. Carrying capacity of the land is no longerconfined to an area of "how many people to feed, but about theecological, economic, technological, and more comprehensiveconsideration of the field. The main study is about the relationshipbetween population, food, and the land resources, and its essence is thestudy of population consuming food production, population needs andthe balance between resource supply developments.In the area of land carrying capacity, the land resources are themain carrier of resource development, environmental pollution anddegradation of land quality. Therefore, the in-depth study of landcarrying capacity will provide scientific guidance and practical significance to promote the intensive use of land resources efficientlyand achieve socio-economic and ecological environmentcomprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development Extensiveuse of mathematical models of the land carrying capacity greatlyimproved the level of research and accuracy of quantitative, promptinga more comprehensive and in-depth research capacity. At present, theecological footprint theory is a measure of the degree of sustainabledevelopment, bio-physical method, which is quantified on the basis ofland area, the demand level, the size of ecological footprint calculation,while calculation of the supply level, the size of ecological carryingcapacity, however, will be comparing the two, in order to evaluate thesustainable development of the object.In this paper, ecological footprint is a guide of theory, and theland-carrying capacity of Hainan district as the main object of study,comprehensive use demographic, economic and social statistics data toanalyze the quantitative ecological footprint and carrying capacity.Meanwhile, on the factors which have influenced the ecological deficit,comprehensive use multivariate statistical methods, such as regressionmodels to quantitative analyze the ecological deficit and establishdeficit-driven model of ecological change. It will reveals therelationship between changes of regional ecological deficit and itsdriving force factors, and then guide the actual decision-making. Ultimately achieve the object that the coordinated development ofHainan district’s land use, ecological environment, social and economicdevelopment. At the same time, provide the basis for landmanagement policies and the restoration of ecological environment.This research mainly includes four parts. Firstly, analyze the landuse situation, problems and land use change of Hainan district;Secondly, according to social and economic statistical data, select theappropriate indicators to calculate the regional ecological footprint,ecological carrying capacity and ecological deficit; Then, conductdynamic evolution of supply and demand conditions from2001to2010,and make an in-depth discussion on ecological footprint from theperspective of total amount and structure; Finally, make use ofmultivariate statistical methods to select the factors that driver ofecological deficit.