Study On The Evaluation Method Of Heating Network Reliability

The evaluation for the reliability of heat supply network is a research topic belonging to the crossed subject, involving the theory of probability, stochastic process theory and decision theory, and many other research areas. With the development of heating system. The research on the evaluation for reliability of the heat-supply network becomes more and more important. There is far-ranging application and long-term social significance to establish the comprehensive evaluation system for reliability of the heat supply network. There are many factors that can affect the reliability of heat-supply network.Taking the interaction between these factors as well as some of the indicators which are difficult to get specific values due to the current conditions into account. Therefore, based on the limit heating coefficient index which affects the heating network reliability and non-accident work probability indicators of heating network, analyze the most basic factor affecting these factors, and study every evaluation index and classification. Following the principle of establishing the index system, heating network reliability evaluation index system is built.This paper analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of all kinds of weight determination methods. Based on the established evaluation index system of heat supply network, the paper calculates each evaluation index weight by sensitivity method, also compares the weight of various indexes, and analysis the contribution that every index contributes to the reliability of heat supply network.This article analyses the characteristics of all kinds of evaluation methods and its applicable conditions, also analyses the neural network in detail, and finally determine the method of standardization handling of every indicator value. The paper establishes the index comprehensive evaluation expectation system, and subdivides the comprehensive evaluation results with hierarchy according to the expectations.Applying the evaluation system in this paper to evaluate the reliability of heat-supply system, analyze the heat supply network reliability and weak links, and put forward the measure for improving the reliability of heat supply network.