Spatial And Temporal Differences In Carbon Emissions And Prediction Of Energy Consumption In Qinghai Province

The establishment of the "double carbon" target national action and the corresponding 2030 Qinghai Province to take the lead in achieving the carbon peak target.It not only shows the specific action deployment made by Qinghai based on the construction of ecological civilization highland,but also reflects the confidence of the whole body around the high-quality development to firmly take the road of green development.As we all know,it is not easy to reach the goal of reducing carbon emissions in a short period of time while ensuring steady economic growth.Thus,the scientific and feasibility of the actions made by Qinghai was once a hot topic of discussion and the focus of academic research.This paper makes an objective judgment on carbon emissions in Qinghai Province from two aspects,namely,the analysis of the current situation of carb on emissions,the identification of the key points and influencing factors of carbon emissions,and the demonstration of its feasibility by closely following the future carbon peak forecast.Specifically with the help of LMD method,the factors affecting the carbon emission intensity of Qinghai Province were decomposed and attributed,and the positive and negative feedback effects of economic output,output structure,energy intensity and energy structure on carbon emissions in Qinghai Province were judged.We also go deeper into the regional and industrial perspectives to analyze the empirical performance of carbon emissions,and use the application of long-term energy alternative planning system soft ware.Simulation projections and analysis of energy demand and carbon emissions in Qinghai Province for 2020-2050 further confirm the basis for taking the lead in reaching carbon peaking.Key findings.(1)The total amount of carbon emissions in the province tends to slow down but with large regional differences.The geographical distribution of carbon emissions is different,mainly concentrated in Xining City,Haixi Prefecture and Hainan Prefecture,mainly influenced by the population and industrial structure;the gap between carbon emission industries is large,and carbon emissions are mostly concentrated in the secondary industry.(2)The factors affecting carbon emissions are rich in regional characteristics.during 2009-2019,carbon emissions from energy consumption in Qinghai province mainly come from the pulling effect of rapid economic development,and are increasing year by year,but the growth rate has slowed down.The inhibiting factor of carbon emission mainly comes from the reduction of energy intensity,which is the key factor to inhibit carbon emission and has been showing negative effect.The influence of industrial structure and energy structure on carbon emission is weak,but due to the upgrading of industrial structure and the development of clean energy industry in Qinghai Province,it has the potential to inhibit carbon emission.(3)The province’s peak carbon emission year is reached sooner.The peak year of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Qinghai Province is reached in 2025 under the base scenario under certain development,which basically coincides with the goal of Qinghai Province to take the lead in achieving the carbon peak.With the support of policies and technological development,the peak year of carbon emissions in Qinghai Province will be further advanced.H owever,considering the many uncertainties that will arise in future economic and social development,achieving the goal of energy saving and emission reduction will also face many challenges.Theoretically and practically,this paper provides a theoretical basis for an objective understanding of the drivers behind carbon emissions and future carbon emission projections in Qinghai Province,and further suggests actions to achieve the target by:(1)optimizing the energy consumption structure;(2)rel easing the emission reduction potential of the secondary industry;(3)protecting the ecological environment and improving the carbon sink capacity;(4)increas ing the investment in science and technology and accelerating the integration of industry,academia and research;(5)promoting the participation of all people in the "double carbon" work.