Study On Risk Of Emergency Evacuation In Public Places

Safe emergency evacuation issues in public places is an important research topic inthe field of public safety and fire safety engineering, many scholars at home and abroadhave made a lot of researches on emergency evacuation risk assessment in public places.Some of them have tried to use the method like establish safety evaluation index, systemanalysis method, etc. to assess the risk of security of public places. However, the riskassessment of casualties and economic loss in the public places emergency evacuation israrely involved.This paper considered two different angles from the time of emergency evacuationand casualty loss to measure emergency evacuation risk, presented the concept ofemergency evacuation value-at-risk, and detailed the emergency evacuation riskassessment method and the calculation method of emergency evacuation VaR in publicplaces. The paper mainly completed the following several aspects:(1) Elaborated the definition of emergency evacuation risk in public places,respectively from the uncertainty of available safety egress time and the uncertainty ofpersonnel reaction preparation time in required safety egress time to analyze. Then, usingthe computer simulation tools and the Monte Carlo method, to propose an emergencyevacuation risk assessment method that considered the uncertainty of available safetyegress time and personnel reaction preparation time.(2) Because of few people study on the risk of casualties in public places emergencyevacuation, therefore, extended the concept of emergency evacuation value-at-risk in themeaning of the VaR in the financial sector, what means the maximum casualty loss for aparticular public place, in every evacuation period and a certain confidence level.According to the VaR calculation principle, summed up the emergency evacuation VaRcalculation steps and the error testing method.(3) Empirical calculation and analysis. After computer modeled based on the actualsituation of a supermarket, and determined the evacuation parameters in supermarketevacuation simulation, we can calculate the emergency evacuation risk and VaR by a large number of evacuation simulation data. At last, the error testing for the emergencyevacuation VaR confirm the validity of the VaR.