Impact Of The Family Planning Policy To Sex Ratio At Birth And Urban-rural Income Gap

As a state policy, China’s family planning rules have implemented more than three decades, over the past three decades, China’s also experienced rocketing economic growth.China’s three-decade-long economic boom draw people’s attention only on the benefits of China’s family planning rules, like demographic dividend, but neglect and cover up the problems that the rules bring. As the relaxation of the public opinion environment and a series of problems related to China’s family planning rules become more serious, like the decline in fertility, aging population, high sex ratio at birth, diminishing of demographic dividend, China’s family planning policy, which has been the subject of intense debate and rancour from the beginning, refocus people’s attention and become a general concern especially in academia.This paper is based on such time background, under the framework of modern econometrics, combining theoretical and empirical research, using quantitative analysis tools and methods, give empirical analysis on problems about the relation between China’s family planning policy and high sex ratio at birth and the relation between China’s family planning policy and urban-rural income gap.From the empirical research about relation between China’s family planning policy and high sex ratio at birth, we find that to a great extent China’s family planning policy caused high sex ratio at birth, especially in the areas implemented one and a half child policy.From the piecewise regression analysis, we find that as time goes on, the relation between China’s family planning policy and high sex ratio at birth become become weak in the areas implemented one child policy, but become strong in the areas implemented one and a half child policy and two children policy.The study also providing an analytical framework to analysis the cause of high sex ratio at birth.The fundamental cause of the unbalance sex ratio at birth is not son preference, but under an abnormal family planning policy, people have to choose sex-selective abortion in order to avoiding fines imposed for disobeying the policy.From the empirical research about relation between China’s family planning policy and urban-rural income gap, we find that China’s family planning policy can reduce the urban-rural income gap to some extent when the market-oriented level is low. With the boosting trend of marketization, this effect fades gradually, and when the market-oriented level reach a certain degree, however, China’s family planning policy can widen the urban-rural income gap to some extent.