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Econometric Study On The Influential Factors Of Provincial Housing Price

Posted on:2015-01-18Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y J QianFull Text:PDF
GTID:2267330428961297Subject:Applied Statistics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
In the past20years, the real estate industry has gotten rapid advance toward the reform direction of monetization, commercialization, and marketization, and has become an important pillar industry of our national economy, and also has become an important source of happiness of family life. However, at the same time, with the rapid development of the real estate, housing prices are also rising quickly, and the growth rate has been much faster than the growth rate of the residents’ income level. The government has introduced relevant policies and increased the intensity of regulation, but the result is not very obvious. So this paper mainly studies about what factors are affecting housing prices and what is the price elasticity of these factors on housing price and their changing trend. Besides, we can also provide the scientific basis for government regulation.In the process of study, we first review the research related to the price of real estate and the research related to real estate regulation, sort out the main factors affecting the housing price from the supply and demand point and propose nine important factors which have impact on housing price. Then, this paper use the panel data of China’s31provinces municipalities and autonomous regions during the period of2005to2012, employ parametric and nonparametric approach to analyze the impact of nine factors on housing price; Finally, we summarize the conclusions of this research and points out issues and areas that need further study.The main three conclusions obtained in this paper are as follows:(1) Parametric and nonparametric methods all imply that purchasing power, namely urban per capita income, is the main driving force of housing price growth; Though the cost, namely the price of the completed, is not the most important factor, its role should not be underestimated; Effect of funds for housing prices, namely the balance of RMB loans, is play a decisive role; the impact of supply quantity, namely the number of real estate developers and the completion of the area, is very small; Land policy, namely the degree of dependence on land, especially to the local government, are more effective housing price regulation means.(2) Parameter estimation greatly overestimated the effects of the development level of the third industry on housing prices. Combined with the qualitative analysis, the estimation results in this paper are more inclined to nonparametric model. Parameter model analysis of the urban population is not accurate, non-parametric results are more reliable.(3) In the context of this dissertation, we obtain that nonparametric model performs better than parametric model according to the reliability and information quantity of research results.According to the empirical results, the paper provides several recommendations:(1) Keep on and deep monetary policy regulation and implement differentiation housing credit policy strictly.(2) Further land policy reform and improve the efficiency of land use to reduce the cost of house and the pressure on housing prices.(3) Deep economic and social reform, improve economic efficiency, increase people’s wealth.(4) Pay more attention to analyze the development of the industry during the time of regulation.(5) The regulation of real estate in the future should keep on trying other structural policies, such as tax policy and so on.(6) Real estate regulation needs further "fine" regulation, such as classification regulation, coordinate regulation and two-way adjustment.
Keywords/Search Tags:Housing Price, Influential Factors, Panel Data Model, Non-parametricModel
PDF Full Text Request
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