A Study Of The Feasibility Of China’s Energy Saving Target During The12^TH Five-Year

Affected by the global economic crisis, China’s economy is facing serious structural problems during the12th Five-Year Plan, and solving these structural problems lies in how to reduce energy consumption. Thus, achieving energy saving target can also realize the adjustment of industrial structure, technological innovation and reduce environmental pollution, this will provide a path for China to accelerate the transformation of the pattern of economic development and economic restructuring. This paper is to discuss the feasibility of China’s energy saving target during the latest five-year plan. This paper forecast the per unit GDP energy consumption of the12th five-year, on that basis, this paper investigates how to meet its energy targets furthermore.First of all, using the improved GM(1,1) model and Markov’s model. It turns out that the per unit GDP energy consumption of the12th five-year will be down to0.9425tons (At constant prices of2005), dropped by9.02%compared with2010’s1.034tons (At constant prices of2005). It is far from reaching the energy targets during the12th five-year, which claims to drop to0.869tons (At constant prices of2005).Afterwards, this paper similarly decomposes the major facts which affect the energy consumption. There are four facts:energy-saving technologies, the productivity level, the development of the industrial structure and the size of the economy. After that, this paper analyzes how these facts influence the energy consumption during the1997to2002and2002to2007. The empirical results show that economic expansion is the most remarkable factor of these four factors. Economic expansion results in460%increased during the1997to2002, and93.94%increased during the2002to2007. The improvement of energy-saving technologies can significantly save energy consumption. The improvement of the productivity level and the improvement of the industrial structure will help the energy saving.Finally, according to the empirical analysis, this paper points out that the economic growth demands for energies, it means that the energy saving target and economic growth goal exist conflict. If we want to reduce the energy consumption and keep the economy growing meanwhile, we should take other factors into consideration, such as improving energy-saving technologies, developing the industrial structure and improving the productivity level of the society. In addition, saving energy through the improvement of energy-saving technologies will be most important factors during the12th five-year, however, in the long term, industrial structure and the productivity level will more significant for saving energy.