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The Evaluation Model Of Social Economical Benefits Of Railway Construction Projects And Case Analysis In Minority Areas Of Gansu

Posted on:2014-10-20Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y Q MaFull Text:PDF
GTID:2269330401976549Subject:Transportation planning and management
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Along with the implementation of the strategy of china’s western region development,the state increases investment for the building of the railway network in western minorityregions. Railway will usher in a period of great development in western minority regions, butthe economic evaluation becomes very important before large-scale railway constructionprojects are implemented. Railway construction projects of western minority areas arerelatively small in the past, and the economic evaluation of those projects is also not much.Based on this, this paper studies the social and economic benefits of the railway constructionprojects in minority areas of Gansu province,and it will provide a theoretical basis for thesubsequent implementation of railway construction projects in the minority areas.This paper firstly analyzes the content of economic evaluation index system of therailway construction project. Then it points out that social benefit evaluation research ofrailway construction projects should be focused on in Gansu minority areas with a poorfinancial condition. and it selects social and economic benefit which plays a very importantrole in the social benefits as the object to study. Then by analyzing the regional social andeconomic situation of minority areas in Gansu province, it uses principal component analysisto determine the contribution rate of the main factors of the social economic benefits in theminority areas of Gansu province. The contribution rates can determine the three factors:GDP, passenger capacity and freight volume which are needed in the study of socialeconomic benefits of the regional railway construction projects.This paper secondly analyzes the basic theoretical knowledge of system dynamics andbuilds causal loop structure of the various factors according to the relationship between therailway and economy in minority areas of Gansu province. Then it builds system dynamicsmodel of regional economy-railway with the railway construction project by using vensimsoftware. With the help of computer dynamical simulation, the relationship of railwayconstruction and economic development in minority areas are studied. And the change ofsocial and economic benefits of railway construction projects of the factors is determined bymodels. Then through the study of GM (1,1) prediction model, it optimizes for time responseequation and predicts the situation changes of social and economic benefits without therailway construction projects using optimized GM (1,1) model. By comparative analysis ofthe presence or absence of the railway construction projects, it draws that the differences ofthe two conditions are railway construction projects’ contributions for regional social andeconomic benefits. The bigger the difference is, the more can reflect the necessity of buildingrailways in the region.This paper finally uses Lanhe railway construction project as an example, and gets the differences of factors of social and economic benefits of minority areas along the railway inthe presence or absence of Lanhe railway construction project according to the basiceconomic dates, the system dynamics model of regional economy-railway with the railwayconstruction project and the optimized GM (1,1) prediction model without railwayconstruction project. And this difference is relatively obvious. It also explains the importanceof Lanhe railway from mineral and tourism resources development, regional social stabilityand environmental protection in Linxia and Gannan. By combining quantitative analysis andqualitative analysis, it points out the feasibility and necessity of the building of Lanhe railway.
Keywords/Search Tags:Social and Economic Benefits, Railway Construction Projects of MinorityAreas, Lanhe Railway, System Dynamics, Gray Theory
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