Research On Risk Assessment Of Land Expropriation Conflict

Society is in transition period from traditional society to modern society step by step in our country at present stage. With a series of facts such as the adjustment of the interest pattern, weakening of the society control, and the aggravation of society differentiation, mass incidents occurred frequently caused by all kinds of problems and contradictions. And conflicts of land requisition are the product in this period of the interest game between different social classes. It is a far-reaching social phenomenon which is made up with complex roots, determinants and induced conditions. Such events have great negative effects, which are often accompanied by casualties and economic losses that delayed the production and living of farmers. In addition, the damage to the government’s credibility and the damage to the social stability are also very huge. Before land acquisition project, therefore, to carry out land requisition conflict risk assessment has the reality significance.This research is mainly on the basis of the literature. First of all, it determined the main related benefit subject in land expropriation and their behavior characteristics in the conflict. Second, it analyzed land conflict risk factors and inducing factors, trying to identify risk points using the Delphi method, using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to establish risk evaluation model of land conflict, carrying on the empirical of a specific land requisition project in Anhui province to calculate the risk level. Third, the research analyzed the problems that exist in risk control of land conflicts, and put forward the prospect on the paper work.What the conclusions showed are as follows:(1) The risks of conflict are more likely to happen in the phases that are associated with the interest of landless peasants immediately in the progress of land requisition.(2) In the process of land expropriation, the role of risk factors on the risk points is according to the characteristic of the phase.(3) Prevention and treatment of land conflict risk need to solve from the root of the problem.