An Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of Aging On Consumption Of Urban And Rural Residents In Hebei Province

Aging population issue, which gains global concerns,has become a social problem.Theresults in the sixth population census show that the level of aging population in China hits thehistoric high during the recent decades. Hebei Province had entered aging period in2000butthe change of age structure is more ahead. For Hebei province, aging period has come in theyear of2000,while more ahead is the changing of age structure.The acceleration of the agingprocess influences the economic development in many ways. Based on the correlationanalysis between the situation of aging population and the consumption level of urban andrural residents, this article tries to reveal the impacts of aging population on the level,as wellas the structure of consumption in one area.Firstly, we have a quantitative description aboutthe aging status in Hebei Province.Relying on the growing rate, the ratio of dependency andthe distribution difference of elderly people,we can make a prediction on the trend of agingpopulation in Hebei province.Secondly, on the basis of the classic Keynesian consumptionfunction,we add the aging population as a factor, in order to analyze the impact of elderlydependency ratio on urban and rural consumption levels. I use the aging populationdependency ratio from1998to2012, the data of consumption per person and the income perperson of urban and rural as the main data in the model, use the Eview6.0to make the unitroot test of the consumption level,combining with the Johansen cointegration test to analyzethe relationships between the aging population and the level of consumption in both the ruraland urban areas. Every1%change of elderly dependency ratio in urban is followed by a0.235705%change,same direction, in residents consumption per person in urban. On thecontrary, rural elderly dependency ratio and the consumption level of rural residents show achange in the opposite direction.Every1%change of elderly dependency ratio in rural isfollowed by a2.474093%change, opposite direction, in residents consumption per person inrural. After joining the elderly dependency ratio model, the income per person in both ruraland urban areas change in the same direction with the consumption per person in both theareas,represent respectively0.948749%and1.74384%impact on consumptions.After obtaining the impact of aging on consumption level in both the rural and urban areas, I use thegray correlation method to analyze the correlation of aging and various expenditures in ruraland urban areas, in order to reveal the impact of aging on consumption structure. Bysummarizing all the conclusions, this article presents several problems of aging phenomenonand consumption in both urban and rural residents in Hebei province and finally give relevantsuggestions to all these problems.