The Development Of Population Aging In Jinzhou New District And Analysis Of Its Impact On Consumption

Accompanying with Western Developed Countries, China has entered the aging society since1999. For population aging is a fast and irreversible procedure and population is one of the basic elements of both economic development and social progress. Then, it must have a great impact on the whole society of China. Sixth national census in Jinzhou new district founds that this district has entered the aging society. Apart from the young in floating population, population aging is more serious in that place. At the mean time, after investigating every year’s consumption in last decade, we can see that Jinzhou new district’s mean value of consumption rate, which is just24.19%, is far below that of the whole country, which is37.93%. People are the main participants in the consumption activities and population aging is an important change of population age structure. So, it is necessary to research the situation of population aging in Jinzhou new district to analysis the influence, which the change of population age structure exercises, on population consumption to a higher degree.Using statistical methods, this paper presents a proper analysis of the situation of Jinzhou new district’s population aging by taking advantage over the two national census (2000and2010) and statistical yearbook data from different angles. To get long-term trends about population aging, author forecasts the population size and structure of Jinzhou new district by using CPPS software. After that, in the particular aspects about consumption rate and proportion of population structure, using mixed date, combining with regression analysis and grey relational analysis, author investigates how the change of population age structure affects consumption level and structure. Finally, by population forecast data in Chapter3, we can get the long-term effects, which demographic changes in Jinzhou new district makes, of consumption,According to the results from above analysis, this paper puts forward several policy suggestions.All in all, we get main results as following:(1) By sixth census data and Historical data of statistical yearbook in Jinzhou new district, this area has entered aging society. The fact proves that the low birth rate and the improvement of life expectancy are main reasons why Jinzhou new district’s population is aging. The results from six different population forecast schemes demonstrate that in the next10years, the proportion of elderly population will increase no matter how Jinzhou new district government and the advance of people’s health level affect fertilityrate and deathrate in Jinzhou new district.(2) By empirical research and mixed date, author got many meaningful results from the effect that population aging make to consumption level. We prove that the relationship between the changes of population age structure and the growth of consumption is reasonable. Meanwhile, those theories are suitable not only for the whole country but also for some local area like Jinzhou new district. The economic research, like consumption level and consumption structure, should take consideration into the fact of population size when population age structure in the area where the research occurs changes.(3) Taking the consumption contrast of population aging and young population into consideration, the consumption of population aging has a positive impact on consumption rate. By introducing relationship between population age structure and consumption, per capita GDP and YL is the negative relation, with the OL is the positive relation. In the aspect of partial effect, OL has the most influence on consumption. And, YL is in the second place. GDP has the least.(4) In the empirical analysis of the relationship between population age structure and consumption structure, we get that population aging has more impact on some consumption, such as "clothing","inhabitancy","Transportation and Communications","health care" and "Education and cultural entertainment services". The government should pay more attention to this relationship to use the social resources and organize production. (5) In the long term, the forecast about population proves that the proportion of old people will increase in the next ten years. If we deal with it reasonable, we can stimulate domestic demand and increase GDP.At last, this paper provides a series of pertinent suggestions depended on the research above.