The Basic Research About Trading And Pricing Of Chinese Carbon Market On The Basis Of Markal-macro Model

Using market to reduce emission has become an inevitable necessarily, As the Kyoto Protocol’s non-Annex B country, Constructing carbon financial market in China is both the requirements of policy-regulation and the trend of the international carbon trading market.In this paper, we advocate for constructing regions’ trading markets first, then the country’s trading market. Because of the regions’ resources, industrial development and the level of the carbon emissions of different areas in China, The national development and Reform Commission plans to start seven pilot carbon emissions trading in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Hubei, Guangdong and Shenzhen. June18,2013, Shenzhen emissions trading pilot has been launched, other pilots would be full launched by the end of2013. October24th,2013, NDRC Department of Climate Change releases trading plat of Voluntary emissions. CCER register system will be releases in the first half of2013. This marks the trading of CCER moves as a "substantial step forward". By the year of2015, China will establish the national carbon-accounting system.Our carbon trading market is also including carbon emissions quota of the initial allocation of primary market (primary market) and carbon emissions trading on its own in the secondary market. In the trading market, total quota determines the total supply of the market quota, and the premise of total quota is to determine the regions carbon emissions. So we choose to use the MARKAL-MACRO model which is a nonlinear dynamic programming model, take the economic system and the system of natural resources as a whole to calculate macroeconomic data and energy systems data. On the condition that the maximum system total discounted efficiency to calculate CO2emissions from the year2015to2050. This can provide reference data for our carbon finance carbon quotas, so that the primary market can distribute quotas to different industries and enterprises, the scarcity of quota also affected its trading price. But now, the biggest problem when we develop carbon finance market is how to determining the allocation of quotas and quotas. Therefore, based on the data predicted, we refer to other carbon financial market in the world, analysis the current situation and existing problems in our carbon financial market, and determine the elements of carbon finance market such as venues, tools, mechanism, price formation mechanism, the supervision mechanism.The article is organized as follows:Chapter Ⅰ introduces the research significance of the article, research content and innovation as well as inadequacies; Chapter Ⅱ introduces EU ITS and America carbon finance market’s operation, products, mechanisms and the nature of market; Chapter Ⅲ is MARKAL-MACRO nonlinear dynamic programming analysis of emission reduction, first introduced nonlinear dynamic programming model, then describes the data sources, data simulation and analysis, finally carbon emission reduction from the year2015to2050; Chapter Ⅳ analysis the current status of our carbon finance trading market as well as some suggestions.In addition, all data in this paper is from the year2003to2012, so the result is more credible and practical significance. On the other hand, this paper also exists shortcomings, because of the data unavailability, according to the whole process, we set many assumptions, so the result has some discrepancy with the actual.