Air Transport Industry Economy Operation Pre-Warning

This paper gives technologies to establish air transport industry economy operation pre-warning system."Air transport industry economy operation pre-warning system"use economics theory to divide the related factors from a qualitative point, and establish index based on historical data and the macroeconomic environment. Then it finds out the relation among civil aviation, other transportation modes and the national economy so as to grasp the air transport industry market situation and development trend more accurately and timely.First of all, the method of determining the basic cycle is introduced. The standard of classifying the beforehand index, consistent index and delay index is explained. In addition, the method of calculating the diffusion index, the function of the index and the relation between the diffusion index and gross fluctuation are present. The method of calculating composite index is also given. Then air transport industry economy operation monitor and pre-warning index system is built. K-L information analysis theory is introduced, and the theory is applied to index time difference analysis. Meanwhile, time series forecasting theory is explained, and the method is applied to economic index forecasting. The thesis introduces the steps to establish the system. Then it picks up pre-warning indexes, quantifies pre-warning zones, applies the AHP method to determine each index's weight in the system,and issues pre-warning level. Finally,air transport industry economy operation monitor and pre-warning system is applied to air transport industry economy in 2001-2006.The positive study is conducted.