The Statistical Research On The Driving Relationship Among Energy, Economy And Environment

In recent years, China’s economy has experienced an unprecedented sustainedand high-speed growth, the economic power and comprehensive national strengthpromote unceasingly. However, along with the rapid economic growth, China’s energyconsumption was rising dramatically. Moreover, accompanied by high energyconsumption and high-speed economic growth is a series of environmental problems.As the contradiction among energy consumption, economic growth and environmentalcontamination became increasingly prominent today, in order to solve this problem,we should understand the current situation and structure of the three, and should takea comprehensive analysis of the relationship and the degree of interaction amongthem, which is a necessary precondition to solve the contradiction.The relationships among energy, economy and environment are complicated andsystemic. This paper makes use of the interaction model and the pressure stateresponse model to research on the drving and coordination mechanisms. The resultsshow that The3E system not only exist positive drive which have positive effectsbetween two of them, but also exist negative drive which have negative effects amongthe three. Moreover, the change of a system will not only be the effect of anothersystem’s change, and will be subject to the impact of the driving action between theother two systems.The paper defines the interation between any two of the energy, economy andenvironment as the local driving mechanism, defines the interation among energy,economy and environment as the global driving mechanism. On the foundation,researched on the econometric tests of the driving relationship among energy,economy and environment from the view of the local and global. On the empirical,first of all, this paper makes use of the panel unit root, cointegration and causalitytests on the research of the econometric tests of part driving relationship. The testresults show that: there are two-way long-term causal relationships among energyconsumption, economic growth and environmental contamination, economic growthand energy consumption exist a two-way short-term causal relationship,environmental contamination and economic growth exist no short-term causalrelationship, industrial emissions, industrial solid waste generation and energyconsumption exist short-term causal relationship to each other, but there is only exist one-way causal relationship from energy consumption to industrial wastewateremissions. Secondly, the paper makes use of the VAR model, impulse responsefunction and variance decomposition on the research of the econometric tests ofglobal driving relationship among China’s energy consumption, economic growth andenvironmental contamination. The test results of global driving relationship show that:there is long-term equilibrium relationship among energy consumption, economicgrowth and environmental contamination, the impacts of economic growth on energyconsumption and environmental contamination present the increasing trend, theimpacts of energy consumption on economic growth and environmental contaminationpresent the increasing trend in short time, and gradually become stable in long time,the impacts of environmental contamination on economic growth and energyconsumption is present the decreasing trend, which gradually began to appearnegative effect.The Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model can better reflect the interactionamong energy, economic and environmental, so we can use it to describe the dynamicequilibrium process of the development of the3E system. Then, based on thecoordination mechanism, the essay builds the scientific coordination evaluation indexsystem of China’s energy, economy and environment by use of the pressure-state-response model, and makes use of the weighted TOPSIS method to evaluate the thedegree of coordination of China’s3E system from1995to2011. The evaluationresults show that: the coordination of China’s3E system generally showing adecreasing trend, they are in the state of coordination before2007, and in the state ofuncoordination after that, what’s more, the extent of this uncoordinattion is graduallyincreased over time.