A Study Of ZheJiang Provice’s Energy Structure Optimization Adjustment Under The Restriction Of Energy Conservation And Emissions Reduction During The12^TH Five-Year

The coal is given priority to energy consumption structure in Zhejiang province, and more than95%of all energy is received from other provinces or foreign country. Energy security and the environmental problems brought by energy consumption become increasingly highlighted. Vigorously developing new clean energy such as nuclear energy, solar energy, wind energy, changing the energy structure, not only can reduce the pressure on energy consumption, but also can alleviate dependence and grip on foreign energy consumption of Zhejiang province. Optimizing adjustment of energy structure reduce the pressure of pollutant discharge and carbon emissions, but rising energy costs impact on economic growth and employment. Based on the strategic adjustment of energy structure, looking for energy conservation and emissions reduction under the constraint of the optimal proportion of energy structure in Zhejiang province, and explore the adjustment of Zhejiang economy, the environment, the impact of the balance of the relationship between economic development and environmental protection, so that to realize the coordinated development of zhejiang economy environment.This article firstly predicts the Zhejiang province in2015under the restriction of energy consumption structure by grey system model. It is concluded that the consumption structure of energy conservation and emissions reduction index only72%of the Zhejiang province planning goal, with structure to be optimized. And multi-objective programming model was constructed to solve the various energy saving and emission reduction in Zhejiang province the optimal energy structure under multiple constraints, the results show that complete the energy conservation and emissions reduction plan under the optimal primary energy consumption structure of Zhejiang province in2015as follows:coal, oil, natural gas, a proportion of electricity and other were55%,19%,6.79%and19%respectively. Different energy structure under the restriction of energy saving and emission reduction of energy cost and cost reduction to economic growth, employment and other macro economic and environmental impact will be different.Then, respectively from the model structure (production activities and factor market, commodity market and trade, the economic subject behavior and final demand, macroeconomic equilibrium and closed rules) and the mathematical description module (price, output and demand, trade module, module structure, market equilibrium module, dynamic recursion module) dynamic energy and environment construction of regional computable general equilibrium model to simulate the rising cost of energy and emission reduction cost reduce impact on macro economy and the environment.Finally, based on2010data compiled by the energy and environment of Zhejiang province SAM used to build dynamic CGE simulation optimization of energy structure, energy and environment in Zhejiang province the results show that with the increase of energy conservation and emissions reduction strength, energy structure adjustment caused by higher energy costs on economic growth, employment, exports, imports macroeconomic factors such as negative economic effects, and its increasing influence nonlinear; Adjustment of energy structure, decrease the costs of emissions but also to the growth of macro economy, increasing its influence also is nonlinear. Complete constraint planning targets for energy conservation and emissions reduction, in general, at the expense of economic growth and employment at the expense of population, and in further exceeding10%of the cases, are within the tolerance of economic and social development in zhejiang province.Simulation results also show that the optimization of energy structure adjustment caused by higher energy costs, although a certain impact on macro economy caused by, but it is helpful for the improvement of the environment. Emission reduction and energy structure optimization after saving is transferred to the production department of new pollutants in economic output and a reduction in pollutant emissions department into increasing the combination constitutes the cost change of the environmental impact, based on the environmental quality of considering energy structure adjustment will be discounted, so to realize the coordinated development of economy and environment, need in optimization of energy structure adjustment at the same time continue to increase investment in emissions reduction.