Survey On Bayannur City Transit Trip And Forecast Of Passenger Flow

The urban public transportation system(UPTS) is an important part of an urban system.With the processing of urbanization and the growing of the population, the UPTS facedincreasing severe problems. Under this background, the ministry of communications initiatedthe bus urban construction demonstration project. The comprehensive investigation of transittrip and proper forecasting for public passenger flow could provide the basis for scientific busroute planning.In this paper, person trip of Linhe district Bayannur city is surveyed, and a combinationforecasting method which consists of trend extrapolation method, growth rate method andexponential smoothing method is used to get the rational economic forecasting. A busessential database is built based on the investigation of the current status of the bus operation,the land use and other information. Conventional four-stage method is used to get the rationalforecast of the demand of bus passenger flow. Firstly, urban population distribution and thepopulation in each district of every programming year is analyzed, then total trips of residentsare got by establishing type analysis model with the relationship between differentdemographic attributes and the number of trips, the total trip generation in the long term ispredicted combing the relationship between urban population, land use and transportationneeds. Secondly, trip distribution is predicted with dual-constrained gravity model which hasa high precision, then OD distribution table is obtained. Thirdly, the disaggregate theory isapplied to analysis how the trip attributes, personal attributes and family attributes impactperson trip choice and establish a model, which rando mly uses5000travelers’ data forcalibration, and then uses the remaining1261traveler’s data to analysis. The bus tripcontribution rate in the planned year is calculated, thus bus OD distribution table is acquired.Finally, according to the comprehensive traffic planning of Linhe District, the passenger flowof the chosen main bus transport corridor is assigned by using SUE model in TransCAD,bus traffic assignment is forecasted, various kinds of evaluation indexes are calculated.The thought and method about the prediction of public transport demand in this papercan offer some references to the transport development plan in small and medium-sized cities.