The Dynamic Scenario Optimal Allocation Of Water Resources And Evaluation Research Of Jining

Water is the basis of all the material life survival and development of all human activities are based on the development and utilization of water resources of the foundation. Due to inextricably link between water resources and the natural, social, economic,so that one of the basic elements of water showed versatility and irreplaceable, and therefore water resources become the foothold of the social and economic development. However, with the rapid social and economic development, water resources face tremendous pressure, the more prominent problem is water shortages. Water shortages become one of the bottlenecks restricting the development of socio-economic factors, it is necessary to achieve the rational and efficient use of water resources, which need to be rational allocation of water resources. This paper conduct a study of the optimal allocation of water resources in Jining City, and in the configuration process it takes fully consideration to the different water regime, socio-economic development scenarios uncertainty. Eventually it achieves the optimal allocation of dynamic scenarios. Taking2010as the actuality year and2015together with2020as the planning year, this paper mainly conducts the following research areas:(1) Based on the evaluation results of water resources investigation and the analysis of water resources development and utilization of Jining City, this paper reached the average annual surface water resources and its available amount, the average annual groundwater resources and its available amount,the average amount of total water resources for many years and its available amount. Secondly,it analyzed the status of water supply and water structures for the past10years.(2)The research of the prediction of water supply and demand in Jining. the paper get the results of the water demand in2015and2020under different water demand programs (basic program, recommended solutions) in a different regime guaranteed rate (P=50%, P=75%) and different socio-economic development scenarios (program Ⅰ, program Ⅱ, program Ⅲ);The results of the supply forecast was reached on the basis of the investigation and assessment of water resources and comprehensive consideration of the water supply project,meanwhile, the utilization of unconventional water and inter-basin water transfer need to be considered.Based on the above,this paper get all the total amount of water available under different guaranteed rate (P=50%, P=75%) in2015and2020.(3) The water resources optimal allocation of dynamic scenarios in Jining. Based on the water supply prediction and the demand of water forcasting, four allocation plan was proposed under different scenarios, and then create the optimal allocation of water resources to optimize the model calculation of different years.(4) The effect of the configuration program implementation and evaluation scheme comparison of Jining. This paper select coordination factor as the main indicator of the effect of configuration options for implementation evaluation and select water quantity, water rates,coordinating factor as the main evaluation indicators to compare the merits of the program.Then the best solution. was been choosed.