Online Evaluation And Fault Forecast Of Electrical Equipment

The electrical equipment security assessment of generator unit is extremely important to power plant. In this article, a effective method was used to online safety assessment and fault forecast for electrical equipment of the unit.As to safety assessment problem of electrical equipment, a kind of safety assessment method based on Analytical Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation was proposed in this paper. Online safety assessment index system of electrical equipment was presented. Initial weights of the specific index layer were determined by Analytical Hierarchy Process and corrected by the principle of variable weight. Uniformization of fuzzy vector was employed in order to obtain grade of comprehensive safety assessment of electrical equipment. In addition, the safety assessment system had been developed.It is also important for executives to predict electrical equipment future trends of the unit in order to make profitable decisions and investments. In this paper, improved Grey-Markov model was presented to eliminate the grey bias and improve antijamming performance of ordinary Grey model. In order to improve the long-term forecast precision, the parameters of traditional Grey model are corrected. Moreover, residual errors are decreased by Markov stochastic process to reduce random fluctuation of accident data affecting the improved Grey model’ precision. The new model is applied to predict electrical equipment failure of generator unit, and results show that the improved method can correctly and effectively forecast electrical equipment state of the unit.