Research And Application Of Regional Energy Planning Model Based On Energy-saving Potential

As we all know, it is very essential for energy to the survival and development ofhuman society and the sustainable development economy. The energy consumption ofstandard coal had reached3.62billion tons in our country by2012. Not only energyshortage is more and more serious, but also is the ecological environment aggravated bythe rapid increase of energy consumption. Given those severe situation, we should paymore attention to energy planning which is the important programmatic document for thedevelopment of energy, and provides a significant guideline for energy-saving.Based on energy-saving potential, a regional energy planning model was developedin the thesis, and its application had been performed to the2015energy plan of Beijing.Using it, we can make energy-saving maximum and ensure energy supplies needed bythe development of regional economy and society. In this thesis, first, the regional energysaving potential was analyzed in three aspects, namely industrial structure, elementstructure and energy structure, and their appropriate calculating methods were alsoproposed. Then, using energy system analysis method, the area was divided into fivesubsystems, namely economic, social, energy, environmental and policy subsystems,through the forecast of regional energy demand and energy supply capacity as well as themeasure of energy saving potential. By analyzing the linkages between the varioussubsystems, a whole regional energy planning model was established. Finally, thespecific application of the model was demonstrated by taking the2015energy plan ofBeijing as an example, and it was concluded that by optimizing the adjustment ofindustrial structure, element structure and energy structure, Beijing city can save about37.713billion kWh equivalent electricity, which is as much as9.83%of the year’s totalenergy consumption.