Study On The Model Of Dynamic Risk Evaluation On Navigation Safety At Construction Period Of Complex Maritime Engineering

With the rapid development of shipping business, watercrafts have shown asoaring tendency towards gigantism, specialization and speedup. As the same withcoastal economy, it is increasingly widespread for comprehensive development andutilization of marine sources, leading to the rising number of operations for complexmaritime constructions such as various hydraulic facilities, sea-crossing bridges,subbottom tunnels and offshore drilling platforms. The construction period ofmaritime engineering will occupy a certain navigable waters, resulting in a certainimpact on navigation safety for vessels in the vicinity. However, on account of itslong front, numerous high-risk equipments, deep influences from ocean climate andimperfect safety management mode, the construction period of maritime engineeringexists hazards for navigation safety. Therefore, by means of analyzing and controllingthe safety hazards of maritime engineering, important significances are involved inestablishing an effective safety precautions to reduce accidents at sea and guaranteenavigation safety during maritime construction period.The engineering of Qingdao subbottom tunnel exploration is an emblematicaltype of complex maritime construction. Influenced by many factors, the informationcollection of navigable waters has many difficulties at construction period. Alongwith its strong ambiguity and incomprehensibility, the accuracy of risk evaluation’sresult is affected to a certain extent. For the convenience of studying navigation riskevaluation, after fully considering the dynamic characteristics in construction periodof complex maritime engineering and influencing factors on navigation safety withthe researches on navigation security risk assessment and safety precautions, thispaper has analyzed the suitable risk evaluation index of navigation safety andestablished appropriate level of risk evaluation system. It has also found up the modelof comprehensive evaluation on navigation safety towards subbottom tunnel underAHP and fuzzy theory. Meanwhile, the paper has divided the dangerous level ofnavigation safety by taking the concept of risk quantification for reference. In thisway the risk evaluation of navigation safety state can be carried on during construction period.It is a dynamic process for construction period having safety implications onnavigable waters. According to the correlation of time and space betweenconstruction section and navigable waters, the paper has established the riskevaluation model based on Markov process under Markov theory. With the help of it,the risk of transition probability matrix can be achieved. Using the matrix forfoundation to take dynamic evaluation prediction about navigation risk, theeffectiveness of risk evaluation can be effectively improved. Appling the safetyprecautions to the construction of navigation safety monitoring at construction periodof complex maritime engineering, and establishing the standardized safetyprecautions, the guarantee of navigation safety can be ultimately achieved.The established model of comprehensive evaluation on navigation safety hasthoroughly depicted the relationship between static and dynamic risks, and involvesimportant theoretical value for the management of navigation safety at constructionperiod of complex maritime engineering. It will also provide references for theplanning of port infrastructures, the organization of ship traffic and the system ofmaritime security.