Road Maintain Strategic Decision Research Based On Cost Analysis

From the benefit of economic growth in China, our motor way construction size had reached a relative high level around the world. Inspire of that, our road maintain system haven’t match our very high level of road construction standard, we fell behind on the road maintain decision and prediction model compare to our construction level. The main reason of this difference is the lack of attention about road maintaining and managing. According the statics from our administration of Transportation forecast, during the time of “13-5”, the road maintained work load in our country are going the reach an unseen high level. For this reason, a study of scientific decision about road maintaining manage base on the cost analysis could be a significant help for our road maintain a suitable situation under a limited budget, and keep our road stay a very high quality.This paper consider the benefit of both road user and manager, point out that the basic element of the road maintain cost regard to the road user is: comfort, traffic delay, accident rate, etc. complete the general concept of the road maintain cost, which include the user cost, build up the road maintain cost hierarchical structure model. Farther improve the basis of road maintain element valuation system, complement the basis of road maintain decision strategy making, avoid the one-sidedness of road maintain decision making. Using analytic hierarchy process(AHP) to build an index system of road maintenance cost; using Delphi method to analysis the index system of road maintenance cost. The analytic hierarchy process and expert consultation method was used to analyze the importance of each factors, the road user cost is an important factor influencing the pavement maintenance decision.Under the reality of lacking raw data of traffic flow, this paper decided using the grey prediction model to predict the future traffic flow, in order to present the basis of road maintain decision; using a highway in Guangzhou for example, made a prediction of the future traffic flow.This paper collect traffic flow and data of road performance from a motor way in Guangzhou, and established the relation between all this data, using grey model to predict the traffic flow, and also talk about the relationship model of accumulative axle load performance index and standard.This paper analysis the decade model and Markov model of the road performance indicator, and using both model to predict and exam the road performance indicator. Building a grey model based on the road user cost analysis(comfort, time cost, accident rate, etc.), further improve the road maintain valuation system based on the generalized cost analyst, improve the theoretical base of the road maintain decision, to avoid the lack of comprehensive of road maintain decision.Focusing the one-sidedness of our current road maintain strategy making standard, which only consider the pavement performance element, staring from the constituted of general road maintain cost, form a road maintain strategy valuation standard direct to each element of user cost; form a fuzzy general road maintain valuation strategy model.