Research On Demand Forecasting And The Site Selection Model Of P&R Facilities

Within the increasing amounts if vehicles and the acceleration of the process of urbanand rural integration, more and more people drive to downtown. It causes serious traffic jam.P&R-an effect method to block peripheral cars into downtown, has made many successfulexperiences abroad. About the park and ride planning, site selection is the first. To ensurethat the P&R’s demand reach the maximum is the most important and it’s also the keyresearch contents in this paper.The method to calculate the P&R’s attraction range was improved. The P&R attractionrange calculation model was built based on generalized travel cost. It was calculated usingweighting method in which the car’s OD and the bus’s OD matrix was introduced. Thegeneralized travel cost was gained based on two kinds of P&R combinations. They were "car+track traffic" and "bus+track traffic". The P&R facility’s necessity and feasibility wereanalyzed by related theories and dates.A basis was proposed. On this basis, the boundary, from which people can reachdowntown in an hour, could be divided. It provided the confirmation of the P&R’s locationwith theory support. Then research on the principle and indicators which affected the P&R’slocation was conducted. Finally, the assessment indicator system was gained based ondemand indicator, comfort indicator, service indicator and coordination indicator. The systemincluded11subitem base indicators. The initial location model was built within TOPSISmodel.The principal component analytical method was used to obtain notable factors whichaffected travel mode choice. It provided the reference point choice with data support. Whenthe reference point was chosen, the generalized cost was considered. However, to enhancethe point’s accuracy, the comfort was also considered. By using questionnaires and SPSSregression analysis, the comfort weighting parameters of different travel modes wereobtained. What’s more, the relationship between transfer time cost and parking cost ofdestination was fitted. The travel mode choosing model was established by limited rationaldecision theory. The P&R demand forecast model which was based on prospect value wasbuilt by using theory of utility maximization.The necessity and feasibility of Jilin city’s P&R construction were proved. When thetravel destination was inelastic, different income groups’ selection of P&R mode was calculated based on prospect theory. So was it under elastic travel purpose. The longestwalking distances accepted by travelers under different situations were obtained. The resultsof prospect theory were tested by SP survey. The result of comparison was good. Especiallythe selection of middle-income group. According to the Logit model, the P&R demand wascalculated and the location of the P&R facility was confirmed. It was founded that theprospect value relied on the time probability distribution very much. When the travelreserved time was changed, different people’s selections of travel mode were differentaccording to the questionnaires.