Research On Investment Evaluation And Portfolio Optimization Of Power Grid Project

AS the basic building activities, power grid projects are not only associated with the economic interests of power companies, but also involving power supply reliability of the construction place, which has a close relationship with the normal development of the national economy and people’s daily lives. Therefore, it has very important significance to establish a set of scientific and rational analysis system of power grid project investment evaluation and portfolio optimization of Power Grid Project and carry out project investment decision to maximize economic and social benefits under the conditions of capital constraints, reliability and so on.Firstly, according to its own characteristics of power grid projects and the principles of constructing comprehensive evaluation index system, the three layer power grid project comprehensive evaluation index system is established considering the constructive, technical, economic and environmental impact feature. The weight of each index of power grid project comprehensive evaluation index system is determined by analytic hierarchy process, and the specific evaluation criteria which provides a reference for the comprehensive evaluation activities is developed.Secondly, considering the uncertainty exists in the power grid project investment, the uncertainty research mentality such as the analysis of profit and loss, sensitivity analysis and probabilistic analysis is determined. Through the study of the project uncertainty, decision-makers can understand the investment risks of different power grid projects so that they can make right decision of power grid project investment plan.Then, the model of power grid project portfolio optimization analysis which selects NPV as measure of the project economic benefits and selects funding constraints as limiting conditions is established to carry out power grid project portfolio analysis.Finally, seven power grid projects to be built in Anhui are selected to carry out the empirical analysis. Respectively, the comprehensive evaluation, uncertainty analysis and portfolio optimization analysis of the various power grid projects are made to prove the usefulness of the proposed methods.