Study On Twon Traffic Demands Predication Based On Land Use

The town economy is developing with a high speed and the land use presents jumping growth, so that the town traffic demands become very active. How to carry out the concept that traffic guides urban development in the process of town construction and development,and to avoid or reduce the traffic problems appeared in the process of urban development. Scientific and reasonable traffic demand predication is the premise. Land use is the source of traffic, land use determines the traffic generation and attraction, and also determines the shape of the traffic distribution. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to establish urban traffic demand prediction model based on land use through studying the relationship between the urban land use and the trip generation and distribution.Firstly, the article analyzes the characteristics of urban land use and transportation systems and on the basis of that analysis evolution law of town spatial form is studied. The results show that there are four stages in the evolution of the town spatial form. The role of the traffic plays in the evolution process of the town spatial form was studied in detail. On this basis, the interaction between land use and town traffic was analysised in-depth through two aspects of towm impact on traffic and traffic impact on town, and the factors that influence each other between town land use and town traffic were also analysised. The result show that the town land use impact on traffic through the nature, scale, strength, layout and mixed degree, and that the traffic impact on the town land use through accessibility and transport capacity.Secondly, town land use and traffic zone were reclassified and re-divided from the perspective of land use and traffic interaction. Then paper defines and analyzes the influence factors of trip generation on the perspective of land use. And on this basis the paper puts forward traffic generation predication modeling ideas based on land use, and establishes the corresponding trip generation model and trip attraction model.Thirdly, based on the analysis of the commonly trip distribution prediction model, the applicability for them were used in the urban traffic demand forecast was discussed. And on that basis the paper analysis the impact on traffic distribution of town land use characteristics, development intensity, land use layout, and establishes traffic distribution prediction model based on land use.Finally, combined with Baochang town of Haimen port district, the traffic generation and distribution is predicted and analyzed by using the established model. The result shows that this research has a certain application value.