Study On The Effect Of High Speed Railway To Road Passenger Transportation In Small And Medium-sized Cities And The Development Strategy

With the characteristics of rapidity and comfort, high-speed railway(HSR) has been greatly developed around the world in recent years. And along with its construction in full swing, many small and medium-sized cities have also entered the era of HSR. HSR operations have a significant impact on the original pattern of passenger transportation in those cities. Therefore, it is significant to study the influence of HSR to road passenger transportation and the optimization of fares and the departure frequency of road passenger transportation, which helps make full use of road transportation resources, improve operational efficiency of road passenger transportation, achieve a reasonable share of passenger flow, organize a variety of scientific transportation modes, and promote the coordinated development and complementary advantages of various transportation modes.This paper first analyzes the current situation and future trends of China’s HSR and road passenger transportation in small and medium-sized cities. Then, taking Wuhan-Guangzhou HSR and Xiamen-Shenzhen HSR for example, this paper analyzes the influence of HSR on road passenger transportation in small and medium-sized cities.Considering seat lacking of HSR, this paper improved the Logit model by introducing the ticket success purchasing rate characteristic index into the utility function, then taking it as the forecasting model of the distribution rate of passenger flow between HSR and road passenger transportation. Meanwhile, taking advantage of elasticity theory, this paper built the direct elasticity model, cross-elasticity model of the distribution rate of passenger flow model and advantaged distance model of road passenger transportation. Those models were validated by using the RP/SP data of passenger trips in Shenzhen-Shanwei transportation Corridor. Then this paper established the function between the advantaged distance of road passenger transportation and the departure frequency of HSR. To the conclusion, HSR operations have a great impact on the road passenger transportation, but road passenger transportation still has its competitiveness in advantaged distance. Reducing fares in advantaged distance would bring about better results.On the basis of distribution rate of passenger flow model, by setting the goals that road passenger transportation are gaining advantage in market position and, maximum benefit, maximum profit and maximum input-output efficiency, this paper built four benefits models, and then the models are applied to the Shenzhen-Shanwei transportation Corridor. Then this paper optimized the fare and departure frequency of road passenger transportation and built the function of the advantaged fare, best fares, maximum profit and other operating indicators of road passenger transportation with the departure frequency of HSR. In conclusion, there is a big waste of resources capacity of road passenger transportation companies in the small and medium-sized cities. Its optimization of fares and departure frequency is needed. However, with the increase of departure frequency of HSR, best fares and maximum profit of road passenger transportation will be decreased.Finally, through the analysis of problems and future trends of road passenger transportation in the small and medium-sized cities, this paper combined with the earlier research findings, using SWOT and Ansoff matrix analysis tools, proposed the suggestion that road passenger transportation should follow two objectives of “competition” and “cooperation”, and take market penetration, market development, product development and diversification strategies.