The Uncertainty Analysis Of Urban Rail Transit Passenger Flow Forecast

Cities Rail Transit Passenger prediction is an important basis for the design of urban rail transit, Cities rail transit system planning, design, construction, operation and decision-making many judge important issues need to support data traffic, The Metro Traffic Volume Forecast uncertainties to urban rail transit construction decision brought great distress. At present, the urban rail transit passenger flow forecast uncertainty still study qualitative analysis, quantitative research relatively less. In this paper, urban rail transit passenger flow forecasting uncertainties systematically quantitative analysis, to improve the urban rail transit passenger flow forecasting system, reduce the urban rail transit project risk decision-making, enhance the anti-risk ability of urban rail transit passenger flow forecasting is of great significance.Paper firstly,the existing urban rail transit passenger flow forecasting theory and method were consolidated analysis, for the most widely used four-stage model depth Analysis and Prediction on each stage of its passenger flow forecasting factors identified.Secondly, the model input parameters of the model and its two main sources of discrimination of urban rail transit passenger flow forecast uncertainty. In which the model input uncertainty mainly from the socio-economic background and other environmental indicators, the uncertainty of the input data; the uncertainty of the model and its parameters are primarily derived from the model selection, modeling, model parameter uncertainty. By uncertainty pass in the fourth phases of the analysis, to further clarify the urban rail transit passenger flow forecast uncertainty comes from the accumulation of uncertainties on a stage and new uncertainties superposition of the phases.Again with, based on the traditional method of error analysis on the introduction of the concept of uncertainty error theory, analysis of each population / employment, public transport travel time, urban rail transport fares error in a four-stage model of each prediction stage, standard deviation, standard uncertainty of the pass-through effect, the theory of linear programming to find the minimum total error makes the passenger flow forecast of passenger flow forecast factors combined to reduce the uncertainty of the results of the entire passenger flow forecast, reasonable risk-averse.Finally, the paper for Xi’an Metro Line passenger flow forecast uncertainty analysis, the results showed that: the uncertainty of each factor in the trip generation, trip distribution and mode split stage is gradual transfer accumulated while in traffic assignment phases due to user equilibrium model, uncertainty transfer utility can be obtained suppressed to some extent. Finally, the combined analysis of various factors, seek to make the minimum passenger flow prediction uncertainty factors in combination, to optimize passenger flow forecasting process, provide the basis for increased passenger flow forecast reliability.