A Study On The Effects Of Speed Dispersion On Road Traffic Safety Evaluation In Mixture Traffic

Due to the joint action of complex road environment and the mixed traffic flow, speed dispersion phenomenon is particularly prominent in highway road, bringing he high incidence of traffic accidents and the complex traffic safety problem. This paper focus on the segments of highway which through the town. Using aerial photography technology to collect traffic data on sample sections, and make qualitative and quantitative analysis of traffic speed dispersion and traffic conflict situation based on the data.First of all, the paper analyzes the speed dispersion and its causes based on the data collected to find the influent factors of road speed dispersion.Secondly, according to the traffic conflict data, it finds the relationship between the causations of speed dispersion and certain traffic conflicts, using Logit regression model to create traffic conflict prediction model related to speed dispersion.Once again, through the video data of collected samples of theory analysis, based on the Fault Tree Analysis model, build the speed discrete background traffic accident risk generation models.Afterwards, according to the conclusions above, the paper creates the model of Traffic Safety Evaluation based on the degree of speed dispersion, using the theory of Bayers Network.At last, the paper summarizes the conclusions in this study along with the existing drawbacks that still need improvement and puts forward several advices for research prospects of road traffic safety evaluation based on traffic conflict techniques in the future.