The Effects Of Population Aging On China Economic Growth

It is an obvious fact that economic development of china faces with serious challenge brought by population aging. Population aging not only changes the age structure of population, but will deeply effects the economic growth and living standard, through consumption, labor supply, labor productivity, human capital investment and social security. The thesis, basing on Chinese economic and social realism, researches the population aging impacting on economic growth, in order to offering economic evidences for the transfer of the family planning policy.The thesis includes three sections. In the first section, paper sums up the status quo, characters of the population aging first. Then the paper exposes the reasons of population aging from the point of the kinds of demographic transition. Finally, grounding on empirical research, paper discusses the relationship between the economic variable and population variable. In the second section, paper investigates the population aging impacting on economic growth roundly. In the last section, paper sums up the main conclusions and point out the policy proposal.The main conclusions of the thesis are:first, through leading in two concepts of equivalent consumption population and effective labor, the elderly will be the main supported people in 2030, which leads to the domestic consumption deficiency, and the same situation will continue in the future 20 years. Such situation seriously weakens the ability coping with the international economic impulsion by enlarging domestic consumption. Second, old age labor will exceed middle age labor in 2015, becoming the main labor. Under the press of domestic consumption increasing and labor supply scarcity brought by population aging, labor short will be more serious. Third, for the fact of the elderly high labor participation rate, the paper points out that we should acknowledge the contribution of the elderly bring to the society and family, which will be the base of the polity aiming to improving the welfare of age people. The empirical research of Hainan age people living situation shows that transfer between generations can't provide enough economic support to the elderly living in country, which means that social security should be founded in country. Last, through summing up the research papers of social security, pay-as-you-go social security will bring positive and negative effects to economic growth synchronously. And the negative effects come from reducing physical capital accumulation, increasing human capital accumulation cost by boosting interest rate and spurring retiring early. Positive effects are brought by interior of human capital exterior effect, eliminating excess physical capital accumulation and reducing bearing rate.Summarizing the research, we believe that thirty years family planning policy of china was the cause of population aging, new born baby sex rate unbalance and population quality improvement decelerating. Family planning policy isn't equal to development policy. Development policy is the forever aim, and Family planning policy should work for it. Facing with changing population, society and economic conditions, china should abandon family planning policy actively. Otherwise, we will lose the opportunity again, and leads calamity to economic development in the future.