Risk Analysis For Investment Project And Research For Algorithm Model

In this paper, analytical model and analog mode of investment project risk are represented.In the analytical model, distinction expression of expectancy and variance are obtained withobject (profit and loss) function expression, exactly describe the rule, and define the center ofa distribution of the project and probable dimension. So it provides credibility laws for projectdecision. In the computer simulation model, the text has proposed the thought of design anddevelopment for the establishment of risk analysis subsystem .Utilizing the advantages of themanagement information system and computer simulation technique, we get the randomvariation characteristic of project goals through the simulation of the common economicevaluation index such as net present value (NPV) , internal rate of return(IRR), dynamiccapital pay-off time ,etc. It has been proved that this simulation method is scientific, reliableand operational.