Research On Industrial Structure Upgrading In Jiangsu From The Perspective Of Foreign Trade Structure Adjustment

With the globalization of world economy, the optimization of industrial structure is more influenced by external factors. In condition of’a new normal’, it is a considerable issue for Jiangsu province to promote the upgrading of industrial structure thus to lead to economic development by adjusting foreign trade structure. As the typical representative of open economy, there is relative broader influence of foreign trade in Jiangsu and Guangdong province on industrial structure. In addition, the trade condition, history, and current situation of both provinces are comparable. In the process of catching up with Guangdong, how to find out a suitable path to economic transformation and upgrade with the experience of Guangdong is extremely significant for Jiangsu.This paper firstly introduces the research background and meaning, combines and summarizes related literature, then expounds the research subject, ideas, methods and contents. Secondly, for theoretical basis, the paper discusses relevant theories of foreign trade and structure adjustment, industrial structure and structure upgrade and also mechanism of pass-through from each other. Thirdly, for the foundation and start of research, the paper analyzes and compares the evolution and current situation of foreign trade and industrial structure in both provinces by means of statistics. Fourthly, on one hand, from the static perspective, the paper selects the mathematical model of Chenery(1975) and revises it, then researches on the effect and cause of foreign trade structure on industrial structure in both province with import and export data and GDP of three sectors from 1995 to 2014. On the other hand, from the dynamic aspect, the paper calculates the import and export structure optimization index, industrial structure optimization index in period of 1995-2014, and uses ADF unit root test, Johansen co-integration test and Granger causality test to analyze the relationship between the change of import/export structure and industrial structure. Finally, the paper proposes the conclusion, and puts forward the political suggestions for upgrading industrial structure of Jiangsu province from the experience of Guangdong.