Studies On The Influence Of Affordable Housing To Commodity Housing Price Based On CGE Model

As the basic material needs of the residents, housing is related to the survival of all sectors of society. From the unified management and distribution of housing to the real estate commodity housing appeared and gradually becoming one of the pillar industries of our national economy during the past nearly forty years, the housing system of our country experienced earth shaking changes. And at the same time, the imperfection of real estate system and management system and the not real understanding of the coordinated development of affordable housing and commercial housing caused a lot of social and economic problems such as the inconsistent of house price growth and national income growth and Low and middle income families’ demand for housing, and so on. The existence of these problems seriously restricts the development of economy and society, and affects the improvement of the living standards of the residents.The complexity of the interaction between affordable housing and commercial housing makes the management and control of the real estate industry become a complicated project. Under the background, how to ensure comprehensive and three-dimensional research the effect of housing on the commercial housing price has become an important issue.Based on the analysis of the theory of security housing in our country, and taking land reserve system and rigid demand theory as theoretical supports, this paper constructs a computable general equilibrium(CGE) model of real estate in China and uses the input-output table of 2012 to compile the basic data social accounting matrix(SAM) to quantitatively study the influence of affordable housing price and supply fluctuation on the price of commercial housing thorough three perspectives--the maximization of residents’ benefit, the minimization of government expenditure and the optimization of the social welfare. The main conclusions are as follows:⑴The trend and degree of influence from affordable housing to commodity housing price from different perspectives and different influencing factors are different;With the increase of the supply of affordable housing, the inhibitory effect on the price of commercial housing is the strongest in the perspective of the resident benefit’ maximization, the weaker is in the perspective of the social welfare’ optimization, and the weakest is in the perspective of the government expenditure’ minimization. With the increase of the price of affordable housing, the promoting effect on the price of commercial housing is the weakest in the perspective of the resident benefit’ maximization, the stronger is in the perspective of the social welfare’ optimization, and the strongest is in the perspective of the government expenditure’ minimization. With the falling of the price of affordable housing, the inhibitory effect on the price of commercial housing is the strongest in the perspective of the resident benefit’ maximization, the weaker is in the perspective of the social welfare’ optimization, and the weakest is in the perspective of the government expenditure’ minimization.⑵Clear the future of China’s affordable housing policy optimization adjustment direction;Through the analysis of the influence of the affordable housing to the commodity housing price under different angle of view,This paper finds that the impact of affordable housing on commodity housing in the perspective of the social welfare’ optimization is between the perspective of the resident benefit’ maximization and the government expenditure’ minimization, and it can coordinate the distribution of the benefits of the residents and the government, even promote the healthy development ofthe real estate market in our country.⑶This paper determines the reasonable scope of the supply of affordable housing in our country;As a means of housing control,reasonable affordable housing supply to a certain extent can be redistribution of social wealth, and adjust the overheated real estate market.Research shows that the supply of affordable housing in the 21%~26% range is more reasonable, duringwhich the commodity housing price is the maximum value of the inhibitory effect in the three perspectives.⑷This paper explains the reasons why there are two different views on the price of commercial housing in the current affordable housing.According to the analysis results, we know that the influence of affordable housing to commodity housing price would vary with different economic background, different stakeholders, and the housing market development degree. The price of commodity housing will be promoted by the increase in the supply of affordable housing and the rise in the price of affordable housing, while the decline in the price of affordable housing will inhibit the price of commercial housing.