| According to the Statistical Communique of the People’s Republic of China onthe2012National Economic and Social Development released by National Bureau ofStatistics, by the end of2012, the whole population in mainland China is1,354million, of which working-age population at the age between15and59is937million,decreased by3.45million. This is the first decline of China’s working-age populationin quite a long time. In addition, the working-age population accounts for69.2%ofthe whole population，decreased by0.60%over the last year. Meanwhile, thepopulation at the age of over60years old in2012accounts for14,3%of the wholepopulation and increased by0.59%. Besides, the population in the status of separationbetween household registered and actual residence is279million, of which flowingpopulation is236million and accounts for17,4%of the whole population. Overall,the phenomenon of declining working-age population, increasing aging populationand expanding flowing population indicate that there will be a significant shitf of thepopulation structure in China in the near future. What’s more, the demographicdividend has reached an infection point, and the age wave will become an irresistibletrend. In fact, affected by the economic development level and traditional ideas，currently family endowment is still the most popular choice for most elderly people inChina. However, as the "only-child" start their own families, the young generation isgradually separated rfom the big families, making the traditional support systemsmore or less been weakened. On the other hand, nursing home can only provide quitelimited beds for the applicants, not to mention that many elderly are very reluctant toleave their home to spend the autumn of their lives. In this regard, China has innovatively developed the concept of elderly home care service. Under the newpattern, how to better understand and satisfy the market demand and promote thedevelopment of the aged service industry will undoubtedly become a worthy issue.On these grounds, following the thinking train of combining the qualitativeresearch and quantitative research，this paper proceeded from the actual needs of theelderly, and completed an in-depth analysis towards their demand for the elderly homecare services. Preliminary study and social investigation revealed the current statusand development barriers of the industry in target region. The further questionnairesurvey and intensive interview provided more additional conclusions for all the urbancommunities.The main conclusions of the empirical analysis include the following points.Firstly, the elderly home care service has a high popularity and potential marketin target region.Secondly, in this region there exists a diversity of demand and individualdifferences, but the supply and demand of the elderly home care services there areapparently unmatched.Thirdly, most elderly people still prefer the traditional endowment approaches atpresent. The pirce and conventional thought are determining their ifnal choices.Finally，the result of logistic model proves that, gender, marital status, educationattainment and self-care ability are the four significant influential factors towards theurban residents’ demand of the elderly home care services.In particular, the design of the study broke the framework of previous researchwhich is restricted to the demand of the registered population, in other words, thisstudy takes the flowing population into consideration. Moreover, based on theinvestigation analysis, this paper summarizes and generalizes all the inlfuential factorsfrom three dimensions, and demonstrates their significances with the statistical model.At last, it puts forward the relevant proposals accordingly for the future developmentof the elderly home care services. |
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