Simulation Study On Pension Agency Of Human Resources Supply And Demand

With the aging of the population increase, the importance of pension issues become increasingly prominent, and there will be more and more elderly to stay in the pension agency, which led to the demand for human resources pension agency increased significantly. However, due to the low staff wages, big workload, widespread social prejudice and other reasons, the supply of human resources pension agency far less, and this contradiction between supply and demand seriously affected the development of China’s pension agency. Therefore, research on the supply and demand is particularly important to promote the healthy development of China’s pension agency.In this paper, based on human resource motivation- hygiene theory, expectation level theory, the theory of Maslow, using the method of literature research, statistical methods and system dynamics, simulation to predict the supply and demand. First, using literature study, collected pension agency and human resources in the field of research results, and summarized the status quo of China’s current pension agency human resources; Second, using SPSS statistical software on two aspects of supply and demand factors in the system for statistical analysis and parameter estimation; Finally, using VENSIM system dynamics software through establishment of cause diagram, flow diagram, and the structural equation, forecast analysis of pension agency human resources supply and demand from 2013 to 2045.Through the system dynamics model simulation results of the pension agency human resource supply and demand trends showing an increase after the first decrease compared to the future, its maximum 0.9265. Then scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis of the ratio of pension agency, service personnel allocation ratio, wage growth and fiscal expenditure ratio pension services to study the effect of human resource supply and demand. Then put forward some suggestions on this basis, such as increase government financial input, build a professional medical personnel training system and develop volunteers.In this study, there are two main innovations: one is the content innovation, namely pension agency human resources two aspects of supply and demand multiple factors; another is the method innovation, namely the use of system dynamics of supply and demand of human resources for the pension agency system for structural simulation, human resource supply and demand estimates of equilibrium state, and the key parameters in the system scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis.