Study On The Assessment Of Emergency Process Management Capability

In the 21st century, various types of crisis caused serious damage to human society, such as the events of the 911 terrorist attacks in the United States, Sars outbreaks mainly in China in 2003 and Wenchuan earthquake in 2008. Although mankind has made great progress in science and technology in the new century, risks which human have to face didn't fade. On the contrary, based on the knowledge about the risks, the governments of almost all countries worldwide have paid more and more attention to the prevention, reduction, handle and recovery of crisis. In the government work report in 2008, it's clearly pointed out that the ability of preventing and dealing with crisis should be improved. To achieve this objective, it is important to assess the organization's capability of emergency management accurately and objectively. Based on the analysis and summary of existing literature, the major work of this paper includes:(1) Analyze the existing emergency management mode of capability assessment and its appropriate scope. The existing capability assessment methods (Capability Assessment for Readiness is a typical representative) have the advantages of comprehension and integration and it can play an important role in the early stage of organization's emergency management capability building. But it set the assessment object as an attribute or a character in emergency management activities, then the relations between activities are ignored and emergency management process is disrupted, which lead to assessment data distortion.(2) Build the theory of emergency process capability assessment. Based on the definition of emergency process, a tool to describe emergency process is developed and the steps of capability assessment are described. That the emergency process can reflect the relationship between emergency activities and emergency process assessment can reflect organization's capability in coordination, information transferring and response speed area. It's a useful supplement to the existing assessment mode.(3) Describe the main content of emergency process capability assessment. The number of emergency process capability assessment indicators much less than existing mode and the main aspects of evaluation include:the execution time of emergency process, emergency process costs, reliability of the emergency process, emergency process satisfaction, the degree of emergency process information and the emergency process management.(4) Based on generalized stochastic Petri net, set up emergency process execution time evaluation model and complete data simulation analysis. Petri net has advantages in communication and computerization. Based on the assumption that emergency process activity execution time is exponentially distributed and model simplification, time performance, transition utilization, operation efficiency and other parameters of entire emergency response process are simulated and analyzed, which proves the validity and feasibility of model.(5) Extreme value theory as a tool to build an emergency process reliability analysis model. Failure analysis of emergency process activity is the basis of reliability analysis. For the quantitative analysis of emergency process activity probability, with the application of extreme value theory, for a special class of systems-interruption accumulation system, analysis models are established and failure probability, the level of return period and other related parameters are calculated.Model and analysis described in the article, using some assumptions to simplify the analysis process. These processes may lead to deviation. To reduce these deviations, it is necessary to relax the model assumptions. Finally, the article points out the research in this area and future study, including non-Markov processes based on stochastic Petri net, the emergency evaluation of satisfaction process.