| This thesis is meant to study the influence of interdependence on the outcome of issue linkage, and it takes the US-China economic interaction, or specifically the US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue, to testify a new analytic method. Issue linkage has long been studied in the academic circle in the context of increasingly interdependent international relationships. However, scholars mainly focus on examining the relationship of interdependence and the adoption of issue linkage, ignoring the relationship between interdependence and the outcome of issue linkage. Different from the previous works which take issue linkage as a diplomatic strategy, this thesis regards issue linkage as a collective action strategy that both countries attempt to pursue in order to gain long-term cooperative development, and examines the impact of interdependence on the outcome of issue linkage through cross-issue analysis and cross-time analysis.According to Power and Interdependence theory, asymmetric interdependence is the source of power during negotiations where issues are linked with each other to reach agreements. The high degree of mutual dependence makes neither side capable to unilaterally command or control the other one, and there is the need to link issues which represent the appeals of the two sides for benefits, in order to make a balance of the benefits of both sides to a certain degree by each making some concessions. When the asymmetrical interdependence is large, which means one side depends on the other much more than the other does on it, the interests of the weaker party would be less realized, or be realized formally not substantially, which means that the more dependent side bears a poorer outcome of issue linkage; when the asymmetrical interdependence is not that large, more agreements of substantiality or of mutual benefits of both sides would be reached and the outcome of issue linkage will be satisfactory for both countries. And the change of interdependent relationship should also produce a positively correlated result on issue linkage.Based on this theory, this thesis puts forward with cross-issue analysis and cross-time analysis to examine the specific outcome of issue linkage influenced by interdependence. Cross-issue analysis is a horizontal analysis which mainly studies the issues concerned by each side in the form of win-sets of both sides. And asymmetrical interdependence determines the size of win-set. Cross-time analysis is a vertical analysis of the outcome of the same issue as time passes by and as several rounds of issue linkage has been carried out. The less dependent side would see that issues more of its concerns get better solved than its counterpart’s. This is the main theoretical framework of this thesis.And then this thesis takes the US-China economic interaction as the example to testify the theory by adopting the new analytic method. The US-China relationship is always a hot topic, and particularly since China’s accession of WTO in 2001, the two countries are becoming increasingly dependent on each other, finding themselves in both cooperation and conflict. To solve the disputes and pursue better and long-term cooperation, the Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED was established in 2006, through which issues concerning both sides have been linked to strive for agreements and consensus. This thesis develops a framework for understanding and analyzing the relationship between interdependence and the outcome of issue-linkage and applies it to the case of the US-China SED to examine how changes in US-China interdependence led to the different issue-linkage outcomes during the Bush administration.During George w. Bush’s administration, the economic interdependence between China and the United States have been kept growing. This thesis selects the bilateral trade between China and the United States, debt and investment conditions as the measurements of their interdependence, to observe the interdependence of China and the United States between 2001 and 2008. The obvious changing trend of the Degree of Dependence on Foreign Trade tells the following conclusions:During George W. Bush’s administration, the US-China interdependence between 2001 and 2006 continued to strengthen, with China more and more depending on the United States; but from 2007, that is, in 2007 and 2008, the data shows that while China was still more dependent on the United States, the dependence degree has been declining. According to Power and Interdependence theory, the declining dependence degree on the US should give China more power in the bargaining than before, which means, China should gain more benefits and make less concessions than before. This thesis selects the US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue as an example, which is the platform for the US and China to link their issues and strive for cooperation, and through a detailed analysis of the outcome of the five dialogues during George W. Bush’s administration, to validate the theoretical conclusion.This thesis picks out the issues concerned by the US and China respectively from the fact sheets released by both sides after each dialogue as the win-sets of both sides, analyzes the agreements on these issues through cross-issue analysis and cross-time analysis, to see the change of these bargaining outcome during the five dialogues, and finally proves the theoretical conclusion that asymmetrical interdependence produces power, and such power influences the bargaining outcome. Specifically, as China depended more on the US than the US did on China, the agreements were more concerned with the US’s benefits. However, as China’s dependence on the US declined since 2007, China began to enjoy more benefits and make less concessions than before.as more agreements of Chinese concerns or mutual concerns began to be reached.In conclusion, by taking the US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue as the example, through cross-issue analysis and cross-time analysis, this thesis proves the influence of asymmetrical interdependence on the outcome of issue linkage, that is, the less dependent side always gets more power in the bargaining when issues are linked with each other, but as the asymmetrical interdependence becomes less asymmetrical, then the once more dependent side will get more power, and it will make less concessions and gain more benefits than before.The competing between the US and China exists everywhere, and the increasing interdependence, as well as the slight change of the interdependence degree, will lead to the change of bargaining power, which leads to different outcome of issue linkage. |
PDF Full Text Request