Study On Coordinate Development Between Population Urbanization And Land Urbanization In Hubei

Urbanization includes the concentration of population to cities, strengthen a nd differentiation process. And also include advancing the process of urban land scape. Namely population urbanization and land urbanization. Along with the ra pid expansion of urban space and land urbanization. Population into smaller citie s is relatively slow. Causing a large number of city proper land vacancy rate is extremely high. Some cities in Hubei province to become the national famous "ghost town", such as Shiyan, county main street Xin town of Huangmei, etc. Which led to a series of ecological and social problems.At present, the study of population urbanization and land urbanization is mainly focused on building the index of coordinated development and measuring coordinate matching degree, cause and effect of population urbanization and land urbanization, and the influence factors and strategy of the coordinated development. However, these studies were lack of the exploration of dynamic changes in urban spatial and temporal evolution, this article take Hubei province as an example, urbanization from the urban internal coordination and the dynamic change of spatio-temporal evolution have been synthetically researched.According to the data source of the index of population urbanization and land urbanization in Hubei province from1991to2011, the principal component analysis had been carried using SPSS software, the coordination model of population urbanization and land urbanization was established, and calculated the parameters of the coordinated development, we had analyzed on the index of the spatial evolution process of population urbanization and land in Hubei province. It is taken13cities in Hubei province as an example, the comprehensive evaluation model and coordinated development model of population urbanization and land urbanization were constructed in the same way, urbanization coordinated development was analyzed from the time and space in Hubei province. On this basis, the application of the mathematical statistics theory of gray neural and network model for the dynamic prediction and analysis of the urbanization index using Matlab and DPS, dynamic analysis model of population urbanization and land urbanization in Hubei province was established, the main research results are as follows: 1. Urbanization coordinated development of population urbanization and land in Hubei province can be roughly divided into three stages:disorder stage from1991to1995, transitional stage from1996to2000, coordination stage from2001to2011, the main benefit from the rapid development of T increase, and the improvement of land urbanization and population urbanization; From the index of population urbanization and land urbanization, it is still in the land urbanization lag model from2001to2004, but which is more than the population urbanization from2004to2011, it is belongs to land urbanization development in advance.2. It is the urbanization space analysis of13cities in Hubei province that the coordinated development level of population urbanization and the land urbanization generally is not high, the coordinated development gap of population urbanization and land urbanization is slightly big, the regional differentiation of coordinated development type has the certain regularity, the lag type proportion of population urbanization is higher.3. As a single model, BP neural network model is higher than precision of GM (1, n). GNNM forecasting model had higher prediction accuracy compared with the single Gray model. It is predicted that the rapid increase of land urbanization is more than population urbanization by2020using GNNM combination model (2020land urbanization index will be2.36times of population urbanization index), which show that advance development of land urbanization will be continued to expand.