Influence Of The Aging Population On The Consumption Level Of Urban Residents

Since the opening up and reform, our country’s economic developed by leaps andbounds, basically maintain the growth rate of around8%every year, the nationalstrength have a good ascension. For a large population and a developing countriesbetween the economic transition can obtain such brilliant achievements is a bridething. Our country stepped into an aging society in1999, with the implementation ofthe one-child policy and now the degree of the aging population is deeper. After theglobal financial crisis, our country’s external economic environment became bad, theRMB had appreciated, export growth had slowed down, domestic investmentenvironment needs to be improved, small and medium-sized enterprises in debt and ishard to survive. As one of the troika of economic, consumption quickly become theobject which government using it to guarantee the steady economic growth and socialprogress. Consumption has become the important means of transformation of thepattern of economic development. However, the residents’ consumption level in Chinashowed a trend of declining. Therefore, analyzing the age structure problems Chinafaces, finding out the cause of the affected residents’ consumption level, have a greatsignificance on our country’s economic growth.This paper will analyze the population changes on the influence of the level ofconsumption in urban areas from the perspective of the aging population structure.First of all, I classified the existed literature, including the study abroad and dynamic.The research laid a solid background to my study. Second part, giving a definition ofan ageing population and consumption level detailed. I have a system describe to thecharacteristics of the Population aging, the causes of the current developmentsituation, the trend analysis and so on. Also have a simple review to consumptioncharacteristics, reasons and trend in urban areas. Later, introduced all kinds ofconsumption model and analyzed the ageing population affect the path of theconsumption, the alderfly’s inherent consumption habit stimulated the consumptionlevel to be ascended directly. Mainly include direct effects and indirect effects, directinfluence is mainly due to inherent in the elderly consumption habits, etc., it directlystimulate the consumption level of ascension, indirect influence is from savings, laborforce and industrial structure perspective, aging impacted on economic growth, thenaffected people’s income level, the last affected the residents’ consumption. Using thetheory of Keynes consumption function and the life cycle, pursuit a lifetime utility maximization and concluded the theoretical model of consumer, this is a bedding tomy empirical analysis.Then enter the empirical part of the article, Using1995-2011panel data of31provinces and cities in our country, Using random utility modelanalyzes the elderly dependency ratio on consumption level of the long-termequilibrium. From the regression results, the ageing produces a negative effect onconsumption, as the population aging degree of further deepening; the consumptionlevel of residents in our country will be more and lower. Authors for the averagepropensity to consume and consumption rate respectively are compared, and theregression have got the same conclusion, The author also analyzed the populationaging in the eastern, central and western areas, according to the results of an ageingpopulation in the eastern is far greater than the influence of the western rural areas.Finally, on the basis of the entire article and empirical research, I chose the prospectof improving the level of residents’ consumption and slow down the aging degree togive some suggestions and comments.In general, the aging population and reducing children’s population have a greatinfluence on urban resident’s consumption level, so we should give enough attentions.