Research On The Impact Of Population Aging On Consumption Of Urban And Rural Residents In China

Since the reform and opening up,China’s economy has continued to grow at a high speed.In 2010,China leapt to the second largest economy in the world,and achieved remarkable achievements in economic development.However,for a long time,China’s economic growth has mainly depended on investment and exports,ignoring the important role of the increase in total consumption and the leap in consumption levels in stimulating economic growth.The long-term downturn in the household consumption rate has become a constraint factor affecting the further development of China’s economy.Especially since the 2008 financial crisis,exports have been significantly reduced,and the problems of overcapacity and structural imbalances caused by massive investment have gradually become prominent.Therefore,in the 14 th Five Year Plan,the state clearly proposed that the theme of promoting high-quality economic development should be to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern with the domestic circulation as the main body and dual circulation promoting each other.In this context,although various departments have introduced relevant policies to stimulate consumption,the trend of insufficient consumption among residents has not been effectively alleviated.Regarding the issue of insufficient consumption,domestic scholars have discussed it from different perspectives and believe that the factors that affect consumption are multifaceted: income distribution,uncertainty brought about by reform and opening up,long-term consumption habits,price levels,preventive savings motivation,legacy motivation,social security system,and so on.In recent years,although the discussion of these factors has provided useful explanations for solving the problem of insufficient consumption,the consumption situation of residents is still not optimistic.Especially in the context of significant changes in the age structure of the population caused by China’s long-term implementation of the family planning policy,it is necessary to consider the impact of the change in the age structure of the population on residents’ consumption,as the main body of consumption.The transformation of the population age structure,especially the gradual deepening of population aging,has become another significant feature of China’s economic development.At the beginning of the founding of New China,China’s population was still young.Since 1980,the elderly population in China has increased rapidly.By 2000,the elderly population aged 65 and above had reached 7% of the total population,marking China’s formal entry into an aging society.By the end of 2021,China’s population aged 65 and above will reach 200.56 million,accounting for 14.2% of the total population.China has become one of the countries with the largest scale and fastest speed of population aging.Another significant feature of China’s aging population is the inversion of urban and rural areas.Economically underdeveloped rural areas bear more parenting pressure,while the long-term dual economic structure between urban and rural areas has led to a further widening of the consumption gap between urban and rural residents.It can be seen that the impact of population aging on residents’ consumption has both the well-known action path of classical theory and obvious Chinese characteristics.Therefore,this article combines relevant theories to empirically test the impact of population aging on the consumption level and consumption structure of urban and rural residents,with a view to providing reference for relevant departments to make positive policy recommendations.Compared to previous studies,this article has several innovations as follows:(1)Previous literature has mostly studied the consumption situation of residents in the country or urban areas,while this article has conducted research and comparative analysis on urban and rural areas separately,identifying similarities while summarizing differences;(2)This article uses multiple analytical methods to comprehensively and accurately analyze the impact of population aging on urban and rural residents’ consumption by combining macro data with micro data,and combining cross-sectional data with panel data;(3)This article is an interdisciplinary analysis that utilizes the knowledge of demography and economics to break through the original thinking of population research,which is limited to the field of demography;(4)This article uses updated data to combine normative analysis with empirical analysis.This article conducts theoretical analysis and empirical testing around the core issue of the impact of population aging on urban and rural residents’ consumption,and mainly draws the following basic conclusions: First,through the regression results of the impact of population aging on the consumption rate of urban and rural residents,it is found that the impact of urban aging on the consumption rate of residents is significantly negative;the impact of rural aging on household consumption rate is significantly positive.Second,the impact of population aging on the consumption structure of urban and rural residents in China is also inconsistent: the consumption of eight categories of products by the urban elderly is lower than that of the children and the adult,while the consumption of rural elderly in housing,household equipment,supplies and services,transportation and communication,and medical care is higher than that of the children and adult population.The income gap between urban and rural elderly is significantly higher than the consumption gap.Therefore,to stimulate residents’ consumption,it is necessary to stimulate the consumption potential of urban elderly groups and increase the income of rural elderly groups.Third,from the perspective of the micro main body of elderly households,the higher the proportion of urban elderly population in households,the more household consumption expenditure.With the growth of age,this change presents a non-linear characteristic.The higher the proportion of rural elderly population in households,the less household consumption expenditure.With the growth of age,this change also presents a non-linear characteristic.The specific research contents and structures are as follows:Chapter 1: Introduction.Combining the realistic background of the increasingly serious aging in China,this paper proposes the core research issues of the relationship between population aging and residents’ consumption,expounds the theoretical and practical significance of this study,and defines the research framework of the full text.Chapter 2: Relevant theories and literature review.Analyze the theory of population transformation,Consumption Theory,and the theory of the relationship between population structure and household consumption,laying the theoretical foundation for this study.Summarize and classify relevant literature,and find the entry point for this study through literature review.Chapter 3: Analysis of China’s population aging and consumption status of urban and rural residents.Analyze the causes of aging in China,provide data evidence and factual analysis on the current situation and characteristics of population aging in China,as well as consumption status and characteristics of urban and rural residents in China,to lay a factual foundation for subsequent theoretical and empirical research.Chapter 4: The mechanism and effect path of population aging on residents’ consumption.Analyze the macro and micro mechanisms of population aging on household consumption,and sort out the direct and indirect paths of the impact of population aging on household consumption.Based on the mechanism analysis,the implementation framework of the follow-up empirical research is given.Chapter 5: Research on the impact of population aging on the consumption level of urban and rural residents.To conduct empirical research on the impact of population aging on the consumption level of urban and rural residents in China.In the empirical research process,Diamond’s three phase expansion model and center of gravity model was used to conduct research work in combination with macro data,and a comparison between urban and rural perspectives was formed.Chapter 6: Research on the impact of population aging on the consumption structure of urban and rural residents.To conduct empirical research on the impact of population aging on the consumption structure of urban and rural residents in China.In the empirical research process,gray correlation model,LA/AIDS expansion model,and consumption preference model are used to conduct research work,combining macro and micro data,and form a comparison between urban and rural perspectives.Chapter 7: Analyzes the threshold effect of the impact of the elderly population on urban and rural residents’ consumption.This paper studies the non-linear characteristics of the impact of the elderly population on consumption of urban and rural residents in China.In the empirical research process,a threshold effect model was used to conduct regression analysis combined with CHARLS micro survey data,and a summary analysis was conducted for each year.Chapter 8: Research conclusions and prospects.Give the conclusions of the full text of the study,specific countermeasures and suggestions,as well as future research prospects.