Research On The Impact Of Population Aging On The Outbound Travel Market

In recent years,the growth rate of the global tourism economy has continued to be higher than that of the global economy,becoming a new force driving the development of the global economy.Under the background of aging,the population as the main body of consumption,its structural changes will have an important impact on the consumption structure,which in turn will affect the development of the outbound tourism market.Facing the outbound travel market with unlimited potential,clarifying the mechanism of aging and other influencing factors and the development of the outbound travel market has important implications for the transformation of the international tourism industry,the development of international tourism enterprises and the innovation of outbound travel service products.Based on theoretical research and empirical analysis,this paper builds on the consumption functions of Modigliani's Life Cycle Theory,expands the factors that affect consumption,and constructs a consumption function that includes the characteristics of population structure,using the panel data of the world's top 20 outbound travel countries from 1996 to 2017,an outbound travel demand model was constructed.Use Eviews software to determine the impact of aging and other factors on the demand for outbound travel,and modify the outbound travel demand model accordingly.The results of the study show that: First,the old-age dependency ratio has a significant promotion effect on the number of international tourist outbound trips,but its impact will gradually decrease with the deepening of aging.Second,the increase of disposable income and the perfect social security system are conducive to the release of old age The population consumption bonus promotes the consumption upgrade of the elderly group,and promotes the “silver hair market” in the outbound travel market to become a new hot spot.Finally,under the combined effect of declining birthrate,aging and the improvement of welfare levels,family size is reduced,family economic pressure is reduced and The accumulation of family wealth has expanded the needs of young and middle-aged tourists and family travel.According to the above research conclusions,in the context of global aging,in order to promote the rapid development of the outbound tourism market,we can start from the following aspects: First,the tourism industry and tourism enterprises need to adjust themselves to provide customized services.Design marketable products according to the differences in the needs of different elderly groups,and seize the new hot spots in the outbound travel silver hair market;secondly,tourism and tourism companies need to focus on market segments and provide diversified services.The ever-expanding life expectancy and the continuously decreasing fertility rate have changed the original family structure and scale.The demand for parent-child travel and family travel has continued to expand,and more diverse requirements have been placed on outbound travel products.Finally,the government should improve China The oldage security system improves residents' consumption expectations,enhances residents' confidence in consumption,raises residents' consumption levels,and achieves consumption upgrades.And by increasing the preferential policies for outbound travel,seizing the demographic dividend period that combines "aging" and "minority",and steadily promote the development of the outbound travel market.