Aging Of Jiangxi Province And Its Impac On Labor Participation Rate

In the 21 st century,the aging of the population has become one of the important issues facing humankind.Since 2000,China has entered an aging society.At present,China's population aging is undergoing a process of gradual acceleration.As one of the six provinces in the central region,Jiangxi Province's population aging trend cannot be ignored.Although Jiangxi Province officially entered the aging society in 2005,it is five years later than the whole country.However,Jiangxi Province's national economic ranking is lower.Its worse.As we all know,the aging of the population not only brings about an especially the change in the age structure of the working-age population,and the size and proportion of the working-age population.which will affect the labor participation rate,and finally affect the stable social and economic development of Jiangxi Province.The main content of this article is divided into four parts: First,the analysis combs related literature on population aging prediction,population aging and labor participation rate,and finds out the shortcomings of current research based on the analysis and summary of previous studies.And to explore the space for the research of this article;Second,by digging historical data,qualitative and quantitative detailed description of regional differences,urban and rural differences,population characteristics of aging population in Jiangxi Province Thirdly,use the GM(1,1)model to find the future birth population sex ratio and fertility model to find the required parameters,and finally apply the Leslie model to use the latest Jiangxi Province 2015 1% sample survey data as the basis.In particular,it combines the impact of the "full second child" policy on future population changes,and thus forecasts the population of Jiangxi Province in 2015-2040,and obtains the total population and age structure of Jiangxi Province in the next 25 years,and further analyzes Jiangxi Province.Future population aging,dependency ratio,working population status,and problems that may be brought about by these changes.Fourth,from the perspective of econometrics,the empirical study of labor aging rate on population aging is carried out by establishing a multiple regression model,and 11 variables are selected to construct a multiple regression model and perform objective analysis and interpretation.Through qualitative and quantitative analysis,this article draws the following conclusions:(1)as the ageing of the population in Jiangxi Province continues to deepen,The rise of the ratio will also cause changes in the population structure,the proportion of the special working population,and the internal changes of the working population.The peak of the working age group will move to the advanced age group,etc.Various factors make the labor participation rate continue to show Downtrend.(2)In terms of quantitative analysis,first of all,in the context of the "full second child" policy,the population aging trend in Jiangxi Province from 2015 to 2040 is predicted.In the next 25 years,Jiangxi Province will reach a maximum population of 2064 in 2023.10,000 people,but the number and proportion of people aged 65 and over is also rising to 203.4% in 2040,that is,the level of aging is deepening.The number of working people between the ages of 15 and 64 has been declining year by year,accounting for 70.23% in 2015 and 62.58% in 2040.Secondly,in the empirical analysis of the labor participation rate of the population aging,by multivariate linear regression analysis of 11 factors from 1990 to 28 in 2018,on the basis of controlling related variables,we obtained each increase has dropped by 1.54 percentage points,that is Specifically: the secondary variables of per capita income level and education level are inversely related to the impact of labor participation rate.The higher the per capita income level,the lower the labor participation rate,which has a negative impact;while the education level has the opposite effect.The higher the level of education,the higher the labor participation rate,which has a positive impact.In addition to these two factors,some positive factors include: the number of working-age population,the level of urbanization,the urbanrural income gap,and population density;the negative factors include: the level of social security,and the level of tertiary industry development.Among these factors,the most significant ones are: the urbanization rate,the number of working-age population,the urban-rural income gap,and the level of social security.Finally,the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the full text reflects the current and future population ageing facing Jiangxi Province and its impact on the labor participation rate,and proposes to continue to advance the “full second child” policy to ease the process of population aging;Fully develop and utilize the resources of the elderly to increase the enthusiasm of the elderly;increase the urbanization rate and promote the policy recommendations of these four aspects: the transfer of rural labor to cities.