Heilongjiang Province, Population Age Structure Of Household Consumption

Since the adoption of the reform and opening-up policy, the economy of Heilongjiang province developed rapidly. The social wealth and people's living quality grew fast as well. However, lots of problems arose during the process. The proportion of household consumption in GDP has always been low, and this trend is becoming worse. According to the life cycle hypothesis proposed by Modigliani and Brumberg (1954), changing of population age structure will bring heavy effects on consumption. Based on this hypothesis, we tried to analysis the dynamics of domestic consumption ratio from the point of population age structure changing in this thesis. Research on the relationship between population age structure and the household consumption will enable us to predict the effect of aged trend of population on the consumption of Heilongjiang province in the future, and also the effect on domestic economy of the whole province.In this thesis, we first analyzed the dynamic of annual consumption of Heilongjiang. Following the analysis, three chapters were paid to describe the variation of the age structure and its' effects on household consumption level. The rate of natural growth of the population of Heilongjiang was low and stable. Population ranged between0and14decreased continuously, but the trend was slowing down. Labor force population aged between15and64grew stably. Nevertheless, due to the shrinking size of the young population, growing space for this range was limited. Population aged above65kept growing stably. Therefore, the population structure of Heilongjiang province indicted that it already entered the aging population society. The absolute consumption quantity increased stably. Although the consumption ratio was oscillation, the overall trend was declining, which suggested that the increasing rate of household consumption was lower than the rate of GDP, and household consumption needs were insufficient. The rate of natural growth of the population played minor role on the consumption level.1%population growth would bring0.021%increment on consumption. Meanwhile the effect of labor force population growth on household consumption was opposite, with0.839%decreasing caused by1%labor force population growth. The aged population growth would bring the same effect on consumption.1%aged population growth would bring0.126%decrement on consumption. In all, the proportion of household consumption in GDP of Heilongjiang province will decrease continuously in the future.Combined the trends of the population changing of Heilongjiang province and its'effects on the consumption, we proposed that the population structure change was not beneficial to the improvement of household consumption needs and the enhancement of the domestic demand. Thus, we suggested that policy should be made to relieve the effects of population age structure changing on consumption needs, such as perfecting the social security system, improving the residents'income, changing consumption view and beautify the consumption environment.