Spatial Econometric Study On The Influencing Factors Of Population Distribution In Northern China

Understanding the population distribution pattern,the regional difference characteristics of population density,the spatio-temporal evolution process of population center in the northern region of our country,and analyzing the influencing factors of population distribution in the northern region of our country will play a positive role in the government’s reasonable resource control,overall planning of urban development,optimization of population distribution and balance of population differences.This paper mainly studies the population in the northern region of our country.Therefore,it selects the three major regions of North China,Northwest China and Northeast China as the research scope,including Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei,Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi,Ningxia,Gansu,Qinghai,Xinjiang,Liaoning,Jilin and Heilongjiang,with a total of 13 provincial regions.Taking the provincial data as the statistical unit,this paper selects the annual data from 2010 to 2019.The population data and the influencing factors data are respectively taken from China Demographic and Employment Statistics Yearbook 2020 and China Statistical Yearbook 2020,and combined with Arcgis and Stata software to carry out qualitative and quantitative analysis on the population distribution.Firstly,the population distribution is studied,and the static spatial distribution characteristics of the northern region are understood from three aspects:population density,population proportion and population geographical concentration.Then,the dynamic change process of the northern region population is analyzed by using population gravity center and spatial autoregressive analysis.Secondly,to understand the influencing factors of population distribution,we first make theoretical analysis from three aspects of economy,society and nature,and then make quantitative analysis,and select 11 influencing factors,such as per capita GDP,residents’ consumption level,fiscal expenditure,average wage of employed persons in urban units,investment in fixed assets of the whole society,number of museums,number of colleges of higher education,number of medical beds,public transport vehicles,annual precipitation and forest coverage area.Because of the spatial correlation of population density,spatial neighbor weight matrix,geographical distance weight matrix and economic distance weight matrix are introduced to establish spatial econometric model to understand the influence of different influencing factors on population density,and then analyze the direct effect and spillover effect of explanatory variables.Finally,according to the current situation of population distribution and the empirical results of influencing factors on population distribution,some suggestions are put forward to optimize the population distribution in northern China.The results show that there are serious regional differences in population distribution in northern China.Among the three major regions,the densely populated areas are mainly concentrated in North China,among which Beijing and Tianjin are the most densely populated,and the northwest and northeast regions have little difference and the population is sparse;In recent ten years,the population distribution pattern in northern China has not changed greatly,and the population center of gravity has shifted slightly to the southwest.The population density has spatial correlation,and the correlation decreases with time.In recent years,it is basically stable at the global Moran index of 0.17.Population density is mainly affected by geographical location,and decreases with the increase of distance,that is,geographical characteristics have greater influence on population density than economic characteristics;The direct effect of each influencing factor on population density is greater than the indirect effect.