Spatial Distribution And Influence Mechanism Of Floating Population In Urban Agglomerations In Yangtze River Economic Belt

Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up,China’s rapid social and economic development and the reform of the household registration system have gradually expanded the scale of the floating population between regions.According to Qipu data,the size of the floating population in 2020 will be about 380 million,which is a significant change from the population growth of Liupu data,with a total increase of 150 million.In this context,discussing the spatial distribution pattern of the floating population and its influencing factors is of great practical significance for formulating relevant policies for the floating population and guiding the reasonable and orderly flow of the population.Firstly,based on the population sample survey data of Liupu,Qipu and 2015,this paper descriptively analyzes the overall characteristics of the floating population of the ChengduChongqing urban agglomeration,the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and analyzes the population number,migration reasons and outflow distribution of the inflow population,outflow population and net floating population from the three research scales of urban agglomeration,province and city.It is found that:(1)The spatial distribution of floating population in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has strong stability,and the ChengduChongqing urban agglomeration and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in the central and western regions are the areas with the largest outflow population,showing a distribution pattern of "high in the west and low in the east",of which Sichuan,Hubei and Hunan are the main sources of population outflow.The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is the main agglomeration of inflow population,and the basic distribution pattern of "east and west" in space is sparse,of which the population mainly flows into Shanghai,Jiangsu and Zhejiang.(2)In terms of the characteristics of the number of net floating population,the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is dominated by net population inflow,while the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River are dominated by net outflow of population.Secondly,the distribution pattern of net floating population in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration,the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration was studied from the perspectives of population migration center,nonequilibrium index and spatial correlation.The results show that:(1)The distribution of migrant population in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration is uneven than that in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,and the population center of gravity of the former is migrating to the southeast,and the latter is migrating to the southwest.(2)The net floating population of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration showed the characteristics of aggregation in space,with high and high clusters distributed in Zhejiang and Shanghai,and low and low clusters distributed in Anhui.The net floating population of the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is spatially randomly distributed.The Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration only showed positive autocorrelation in space in 2020,with high and high clusters distributed in provincial capitals and their surrounding areas,and low clusters distributed in the central region of the urban agglomeration.Finally,based on the spatial correlation results,a stepwise regression model and a spatial econometric model are constructed,and the influencing factors and differences of the spatial distribution of migrant population in urban agglomerations are quantitatively analyzed from the economic and social perspectives of regions.It is found that before the epidemic,the distribution of migrant population in Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration was mainly affected by social factors such as urbanization rate,number of ordinary colleges and universities,number of hospital beds and housing prices,and after the epidemic,economic factors such as per capita GDP,employment opportunities and wage income became the main factors affecting population mobility.The factors affecting the distribution of net migrant population in urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River before and after the epidemic are mainly per capita GDP and urbanization rate.Before the pandemic,the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration was mainly affected by economic factors such as per capita GDP,employment opportunities and wage income,which had a positive impact on population inflow.After the epidemic,the inflow of population is mainly affected by social factors such as urbanization rate,housing prices and average wages of on-the-job employees.